Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Participation in the expansion can be achieved through primary subscription and secondary market trading. Primary subscription is suitable for allocation - oriented investors, allowing for large - scale allocation and having a shorter lock - up period than IPO projects. However, profitability is related to the subscription timing. Original equity holders are important participants in the expansion, with historical subscription ratios ranging from 20% to 51%. Non - existing investors also have the opportunity to participate in primary subscription. The subscription price of the expansion is about 90% - 100% of the pricing benchmark. The valuation of the expanded shares is related to the offering timing and asset quality. Compared with current IPO projects, the primary - secondary price difference of expansion projects is smaller, with an average first - day listing increase of only 1%. Considering the lock - up period of more than 6 months, the primary subscription return will be significantly affected by the overall market trend, and the new - share subscription strategy has limited effectiveness [3]. - Secondary market trading is divided into dividend - based trading and event - based trading. For dividend - based trading, after the expansion plan is announced, the change in dividends can be calculated based on the distribution rate difference, expansion discount rate, and expansion market value ratio, and the theoretical price increase or decrease of REITs can be calculated accordingly. For existing investors, whether to participate in the expansion does not affect subsequent dividends. If dividends are thickened, they should continue to hold; if thinned, they can consider reducing their holdings. For incremental investors, they can buy assets likely to expand when the secondary market meets their cash distribution rate requirements and wait for dividend thickening. For event - based trading, there are short - term trading opportunities during the expansion process. The best time to buy is when the issuer replies to the exchange's inquiries, with a 100% win - rate for buying on that day and selling after holding for 1 day. The exchange's approval day is also a good time [4]. - Looking ahead, expansion may be an important way of new supply in the next 1 - 2 years. For investors, the most important thing about expansion is to provide relatively abundant asset supply to meet their allocation needs. This is because the development time of mainland China's REITs is short, although the number has exceeded that of Japan, the average market value is low, and policy support for expansion is obvious. As of October 24, 2025, there are 5 projects that have announced expansion plans but have not completed the offering and listing, distributed in 4 industries: affordable housing, industrial parks, energy, and consumption; another 6 projects have released expansion information but have no detailed expansion plans [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Subscription: Pricing Process, Valuation Comparison, and Returns 1.1 Pricing Process - The expansion pricing process is similar to that of IPO, with three important announcement nodes: the prospectus determines the asset situation, approximate pricing range, and offering method; the share - holders' meeting proposal announces strategic investors and lock - up periods; the private placement offering report announces the offering price [8][9]. - The main participants are original equity holders and new investors. According to historical expansion cases, the subscription ratio of original equity holders ranges from 20% to 51%, and the subscription price is about 90% - 100% of the benchmark price [10][13]. 1.2 Valuation Comparison - Vertically compared, expansion shares are more expensive than IPO shares, which may be related to the decline in the risk - free rate in recent years. Generally, the distribution rate of expansion is lower than that of IPO, but for some projects like Bosera Shekou Industrial Park and Guotai Junan Dongjiu, the expansion distribution rate is higher, possibly due to the lower quality of expansion assets. The distribution rate difference of CICC GLP is not obvious [14][18]. - Horizontally compared, there is no significant difference in the valuation of expansion shares and contemporaneous IPO shares. The cash distribution rate of expansion projects is in the middle among contemporaneous IPO projects in the same industry [19]. 1.3 Returns - The first - day listing increase of expansion projects is lower than that of IPO projects. The primary - secondary price difference of expansion projects is small because the expansion pricing is not less than 90% of the secondary - market price of individual bonds. The longer the holding period, the more it is affected by the overall market trend. For example, the first batch of expansion projects in 2023 had negative returns for holding half - year and one - year, which is related to the bear market of REITs in 2023 [23][26]. 2. Secondary Market: Dividend - Based Trading and Event - Based Trading 2.1 Dividend - Based Trading - The change in dividends is determined by the difference between the distribution rate of expansion assets multiplied by the discount rate and the pre - expansion distribution rate, as well as the expansion market value ratio. The expansion market value ratio determines the amplitude of the thickening or weakening of dividends [29]. - After the expansion plan is announced, the change in dividends can be calculated, and the theoretical increase or decrease of REITs can be estimated by discounting the dividend change. According to historical cases, the theoretical increase or decrease of implemented expansion plans ranges from - 2% to 16%. In practice, there is a large difference between the actual and theoretical increases or decreases, which may be related to the market situation [33][34]. 2.2 Event - Based Trading - There are short - term event - based trading opportunities during the expansion process. The best time to buy is when the issuer replies to the exchange's inquiries, with a 100% win - rate for buying on that day and selling after holding for 1 day. The exchange's approval day is also a good time. This strategy is suitable for short - term trading, and the return for holding 3 days is likely to be lower than that for holding 1 day [36][38]. 3. Market Outlook - Expansion may be an important way of new supply for REITs in the next 1 - 2 years. Mainland China's REITs have a short development time, with a larger number but lower average market value compared to Japan. Policy support for expansion is obvious. As of October 24, 2025, there are 5 projects that have announced expansion plans but have not completed the offering and listing, and 6 projects have released expansion information but no detailed plans [41][44].