六胺(Hexamethylenetetramine)

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六胺出口成本被推至极限!第三国转口能否成为破解美国关税封锁的关键?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 05:36
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) have imposed a combined tariff rate of 825.92% on Chinese hexamine, effectively eliminating the possibility of direct exports to the U.S. [1] Group 1: Export Dynamics - The direct export model for Chinese hexamine is nearly "ineffective" due to the prohibitive costs associated with the tariffs, which would increase the cost of a $1 million shipment by over $8 million [2] - The export share of hexamine to the U.S. is expected to continue shrinking over the next 2-3 years as the U.S. maintains high-pressure "double anti" measures against Chinese chemical products [2] Group 2: Third-Country Transshipment - The industry is increasingly looking at third-country transshipment as a potential solution to bypass high tariffs, with countries like Turkey serving as key transshipment hubs [4] - Short-term, Turkey and Dubai are likely to become central nodes for hexamine transshipment, while Southeast Asian countries may join as regional trade cooperation deepens [4] Group 3: Industry Competition Landscape - There remains a rigid demand for hexamine in the U.S. market, particularly in the plastics, rubber additives, and pharmaceutical sectors [5] - The ability to successfully utilize transshipment models will be a critical factor for companies to maintain international orders [5] - Companies may consider investing in small-scale processing in transshipment countries, leading to a "re-manufacturing" model [5] - Exporters are likely to diversify their supply chains, reducing reliance on a single market and expanding into South America, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Group 4: Policy and Compliance Considerations - Transshipment must comply with the legal and trade policies of the transshipment countries, and the U.S. may enhance scrutiny of transshipment trade, raising compliance management requirements for companies [7] - Companies need to prioritize documentation, certificates of origin, and trade compliance to avoid potential legal risks [7] - Long-term, transparency and compliance will be crucial for the sustainability of the third-country transshipment model [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - Third-country transshipment is viewed as the most feasible solution under current conditions, but its effectiveness in overcoming U.S. tariff barriers will depend on market practices and policy developments over the coming years [9] - The future of hexamine exports is not only a result of tariff negotiations but also part of the broader reshaping of global supply chain dynamics [9]