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航天电子(600879):需求显著回暖,业绩短期承压
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-06 14:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.835 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209 million yuan, down 62.77% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 15.17% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 3.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.97%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 35 million yuan, down 88.65% year-on-year and down 75.37% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 20 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.93%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 185.34%. Overall demand has significantly rebounded, but performance is under short-term pressure due to product structure and cost fluctuations [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 sales gross margin was 16.11%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.66 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.88 percentage points, primarily due to changes in the delivery product structure, with low-margin products diluting overall margins. The net profit margin for Q3 was 1.20%, down 19.36 percentage points year-on-year and down 2.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The expense ratio benefited from increased revenue, with the Q3 period expense ratio at 15.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 22.18 percentage points [12]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is a leading manufacturer of precision-guided munitions, disposable drones, and anti-drone systems, successfully winning multiple bids for various unmanned systems. The overseas demand for its products remains strong, with several countries in active negotiations for procurement projects. The company is positioned as a core supplier for domestic mega-constellation projects and is expected to benefit from the booming demand in the aerospace sector. Inventory and contract liabilities have increased for three consecutive quarters, currently at seasonal highs, with inventory reaching historical peaks, ensuring rapid delivery in the future [12]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 556 million yuan, 777 million yuan, and 1.012 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 40.00%, and 30.2%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 66.6, 47.6, and 36.6 times. As the company gradually transitions to batch production for domestic and foreign models and accelerates commercial aerospace construction, there is a possibility of upward adjustments to profit forecasts [12].