Travel + Leisure (NYSE:TNL) FY 2025 Conference December 03, 2025 01:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsErik Hoag - CFOConference Call ParticipantsBrandt Montour - Director, Equity Research AnalystNone - AnalystBrandt MontourHello, everybody. Hope you guys had a good lunch. We're here with Erik Hug from Travel + Leisure, the Chief Financial Officer. Erik, maybe we'll start with a very brief overview of the business, and you can kind of take that right into an overview of how the timeshare consumer feels as near-te ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For FY 2025, Travel + Leisure generated approximately $4 billion in revenue, with EBITDA just under $1 billion, reflecting a revenue growth of about 4% and EBITDA growth of roughly 6% year-to-date [2][3] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 14%, and free cash flow per share rose by over 20% [3] - The company raised its guidance for gross vacation ownership interest sales, volume per guest, adjusted EBITDA, and modestly increased the outlook for free cash flow [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The vacation ownership segment constitutes about three-quarters of the company, characterized by predictable revenue and strong cash flows [2] - The travel and membership segment, making up roughly a quarter of the company, has a member base of about 3 million, with high recurring revenue from multi-year contracts [2] - Approximately two-thirds of transactions come from existing owners, indicating strong repeat business [6][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer base for Travel + Leisure is stable, with new owners averaging in their early 50s and a household income of around $120,000 [6] - There are no significant fluctuations noted across different geographical markets [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on upgrading existing owners and attracting new owners, with a long-term target mix of 35% new owners and 65% existing owners [10] - New brands such as Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer are being introduced, alongside continued growth in existing brands like Margaritaville and Accor Vacation Club [13][25] - The company is also looking to improve its consumer finance portfolio and expects a modest pickup in spreads as interest rates decline [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the consumer base and the ability to drive demand through direct marketing strategies [11][12] - The loan loss provision is expected to decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, with a target of settling at or below 20% [14][17] - The company is focused on capital allocation, balancing investments in growth with shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [55] Other Important Information - The company is currently operating at a leverage ratio of approximately 3.3, with a target of reducing it to around 2.25 to 3 over time [47] - The optimal inventory level is between two to three years, but the current inventory stands at four to five years due to new brand requirements and inventory recycling initiatives [48][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the consumer sentiment in the travel and leisure sector? - Management noted that the consumer remains strong, with consistent trends in key performance indicators such as booking windows and arrivals [4][6] Question: What is the outlook for new brands like Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer? - The focus for 2026 will be on scaling these brands, with expectations for growth but not immediate inclusion in financial modeling [25][30] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape and potential M&A opportunities? - The company is aware of the narrowed universe of potential acquisition targets in the timeshare space and is focused on driving shareholder returns through internal investments and capital allocation [44][45] Question: What is the company's approach to capital allocation? - The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation, with a commitment to dividends and share buybacks while investing for growth [55]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated over $1 billion in revenue, $250 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.65 in adjusted earnings per share, all showing year-over-year increases [6][19] - Adjusted EBITDA grew 2% year-over-year, translating to a 4% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first half of the year [19] - The average FICO score of new originations is 746, reflecting a more than 20-point increase since the company updated its credit quality standards [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Vacation Ownership segment saw revenue grow 6% to $853 million, driven by a 3% increase in tours and a VPG of $3,251, which is up 7% from last year [20] - The Travel and Membership segment's revenue was $166 million for the quarter, down 6% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA declining 11% to $55 million [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand remains strong across the core timeshare business, with tour growth improving sequentially from the first quarter and 3% compared to 2024 [7] - The company serves more than 800,000 owner families with an average tenure of 17 years, indicating a stable customer base [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growing its core vacation ownership business while leveraging data and technology to enhance customer experience [13] - New brand expansions include a new sales location in Nashville and the launch of the Accor Vacation Club in Asia, indicating a strategy of geographic expansion [14][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of leisure travel and the health of consumers, with spending on leisure travel expected to grow mid-single digits per year over the next five years [7] - The company anticipates continued strength in the vacation ownership business, which is expected to cover any weakness in the travel and membership segment [26] Other Important Information - The company returned $107 million of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders during the quarter, with $37 million through dividends and $70 million in share repurchases [23] - The liquidity position remains strong, ending the quarter with over $800 million, including $212 million in cash and cash equivalents [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Visibility in the Travel and Membership segment - Management acknowledged challenges in the travel membership segment due to industry consolidation and unanticipated impacts from M&A activity, but emphasized proactive measures to address these issues [31][32] Question: Average transaction size and financing - Management noted that the increase in average transaction size is due to measured price increases and greater owner engagement, with no significant change in the propensity to finance [35][38] Question: Delinquency trends and provisions - Delinquencies moderated through the second quarter and into July, with a full-year provision of 21% expected, and management is confident in the portfolio's strength [46][47] Question: Consumer health and income stratification - Management indicated that higher household incomes correlate with better performance and lower delinquencies, while new owner performance remains strong despite economic uncertainties [56][58] Question: International opportunities with Accor - Management expressed optimism about the international market potential but emphasized that the U.S. market remains the primary focus, with expectations for similar profitability margins internationally [74][78] Question: New projects and brand launches - Management highlighted the strategic importance of new brands like Margaritaville and Sports Illustrated, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales growth [90][91]

Summary of Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) - **Date of Conference**: June 03, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Cyclicality of Timeshare Business**: Timeshare purchases are discretionary but viewed as long-term investments in future vacations. Despite macroeconomic volatility, the company reported only a 2% decline in vacation purchase growth (VPG) for first-time buyers and owners, indicating continued consumer interest in long-term vacation investments [2][12] - **Post-COVID Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable shift towards prioritizing experiences over material goods, leading to high occupancy rates of over 90% across vacation ownership resorts [4] Financial Performance and Business Model - **Recurring Revenue**: Approximately 40% of EBITDA is recurring, with growth expected in financing profits and management fees despite higher securitization rates [6] - **Sales and Promotions**: The company has implemented promotional incentives to drive demand, particularly for first-time buyers, resulting in an increase in their mix of first-time buyers compared to competitors [7][8] - **Occupancy Rates**: The company maintains high occupancy rates, with resorts expected to remain over 90% occupied throughout the year [4] Consumer Demographics and Trends - **Target Demographics**: The average household income of customers is around $275,000, with a self-reported net worth of approximately $1 million. About 60% of first-time buyers are from the millennial and Gen X demographics [16][15] - **Product Evolution**: The timeshare product has evolved to include more flexible options, appealing to younger consumers and families, which helps maintain relevance across generations [13][14] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - **Modernization Initiatives**: The company is targeting an incremental EBITDA of $150 million to $200 million through modernization efforts, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and agility [29] - **Cost of Vacation Ownership Interest (VOI)**: The cost of VOI has been managed through a mix of repurchased inventory and new inventory, with expectations of higher product costs in the future [31][34] Credit and Delinquency Management - **Delinquency Rates**: Delinquency rates have improved due to proactive outreach and technology enhancements, with maintenance fee increases kept to a low 3% for 2025 [38][39] - **FICO Scores**: The average FICO score for originations is approximately 735, reflecting a focus on higher-quality credit risk since the acquisition of ILG in 2018 [42] Capital Allocation and Free Cash Flow - **Free Cash Flow Conversion**: Historically, free cash flow conversion has been above 50%, but is expected to be in the low 40% range this year due to higher inventory spending [49] - **Asset Sales**: The company is actively selling non-core assets, such as the Sheraton Kauai Hotel, to focus on its core business and improve cash flow [55] Conclusion Marriott Vacations Worldwide is navigating a complex market environment with a focus on enhancing customer experience, maintaining high occupancy rates, and improving operational efficiencies. The company is well-positioned to leverage its strong brand and evolving product offerings to attract a diverse customer base while managing costs and improving financial performance.