在此前猪周期的文章中所长讲了，抓周期其实是赚小钱，而且赚得很辛苦，往往是捡了芝麻丢了西瓜， 甚至不仅捡不到芝麻还会赔西瓜。 因为猪周期根本就是无法预测的，与其费尽心机去琢磨业内人士都琢磨不透的猪周期，赚那点周期的蝇 头小利，不如眼光放长点等大钱。 这个大钱是啥呢？这里所长随便说两点： 一方面，社会经济水平提高，人们消费升级，肉食的消耗量越来越大，吃得也越来越精致，这是一个肉 眼可见的行业大趋势。 另一方面，随着科技进步、养殖行业效率提升，行业内企业整体水平会越来越优秀，盈利能力将越来越 强，甚至可以通过一些阿尔法将部分周期熨平，这是另一个稍微动动脑子就能观察到的大趋势。 前者很容易理解，对于后者，所长举个例子，下图是生猪养猪行业龙头牧原股份的经营数据情况，一图 胜过千言万语，所长觉得看了下图大家应该明白所长的意思。虽然有一轮一轮的猪周期，但拉长周期 看，作为行业龙头的牧原，其产能一直在增加，销量一直在增长，养殖成本也一直在下降，所以拉长周 期看，他的业绩就会越来越好，市值自然也就不断上涨了。 | 项目 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020 年 | 2021 年 | 2022 年 | 2023 年 | ...

Group 1 - The securities industry reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, showing growth in earnings, improved business profitability, and significant dividend payouts [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from market recovery and has unique Alpha growth potential due to successful transformation [1] - The profitability outlook for the brokerage sector is enhanced by policy expectations, improved funding, and internal growth drivers, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1] Group 2 - The current investment appeal of the brokerage sector is driven by three main factors: clear policy direction for an active capital market, recovery in market confidence leading to increased trading volume and margin financing, and a focus on developing high-value-added services such as wealth management and institutional business [1] - Investors can access the brokerage sector through the Yinhua Fund's brokerage ETF (159842) and its linked funds, which offer low management and custody fees, thus reducing holding costs for long-term investments [2] - The brokerage ETF (159842) has a management fee rate of only 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making it one of the lower-cost options in the market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of brokerage stocks in the A-share market, characterized by a "double 20 trillion yuan market," indicating robust trading volume and market sentiment [1] - The current market environment shows a sustained growth in brokerage performance, with increased trading volume, margin financing balance, and issuance of equity products, leading to a valuation recovery for brokerages [1] - Historical data indicates that the brokerage sector is currently in a "lagging" state, with the brokerage index only rising about 10% year-to-date as of August 18, compared to significant gains in previous years [2] Group 2 - The brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is at a historical low, with the current PB for 2025 estimated at 1.45 times, suggesting a potential 25% upside in valuations as market activity increases [2] - Analysts emphasize the importance of recognizing the rebound opportunities in the brokerage sector, driven by active trading and regulatory innovations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Yinhua Fund's brokerage ETF (159842) as a low-cost, efficient investment tool to capitalize on the current market opportunities, with a management fee of only 0.15% [3]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high not seen since August 20, 2015, surpassing the previous peak set on February 18, 2021 [1] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets has exceeded 20 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] Brokerage Sector Insights - The performance of brokerage stocks is closely tied to market conditions, with the recent increase in trading volume likely to boost brokerage firms' earnings [1] - The margin trading balance in the two markets has remained above 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, reflecting positive market sentiment and benefiting brokerage businesses [1] ETF and Investment Opportunities - The brokerage ETF (159842) has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it an attractive option for investors looking to reduce holding costs [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to attract incremental capital as active equity funds currently have a lower allocation to brokerages compared to performance benchmarks [2] Future Outlook - Several listed brokerages have begun to disclose their semi-annual reports for 2025, indicating a potential improvement in earnings for the third quarter driven by rising market risk appetite and trading volume [1] - The brokerage sector index (399975) has not yet surpassed its high from November 8 of the previous year, suggesting there may still be room for upward movement [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the brokerage sector, particularly as the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3500 points, marking a new high for the year [1] - The brokerage sector is characterized as a "high beta asset," with its main business closely tied to the performance of the capital market. The sector has seen comprehensive improvement across five major business areas since the recovery of the A-share market in 2025 [1] - In the first quarter of this year, the brokerage sector reported a robust year-on-year revenue growth of 20.93% and a net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 79.56%. Key drivers include proprietary investment (up 45% year-on-year) and brokerage business (up 49% year-on-year) [1] - Current market conditions indicate a dual approach of stabilizing and entering the market, with ongoing measures to stabilize the stock market expected to attract long-term capital, potentially smoothing out equity asset volatility and enhancing returns [1] - The increase in household savings, coupled with declining interest rates, is making equity assets more attractive, suggesting that personal savings may shift towards the market, creating significant incremental space for capital inflow [1] - Overall, the enhanced inherent stability of the capital market is expected to provide room for incremental capital inflow, driving growth in brokerage, margin financing, and stock derivatives businesses, thereby expanding the performance and valuation space of the brokerage sector [1] Group 2 - Investors are encouraged to consider the brokerage ETF (159842), which tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index (399975.SZ) and covers 49 brokerage stocks, facilitating easy access to investment opportunities in the sector [2] - The brokerage ETF currently has a management fee rate of only 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee ETFs tracking the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, with a combined fee structure of "0.15% + 0.05%" being among the industry's lowest [2]