Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector has shown a strong resurgence at the beginning of the year, with a notable "stock market leading, futures and spot resonance" trend, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The core chemical ETF surged over 5% in the first week of the year, with leading products seeing cumulative gains exceeding 10% and a single-day net inflow surpassing 200 million yuan [5]. - The stock market's bullish sentiment quickly transmitted to the commodity market, with active trading in chemical products, particularly in the energy chain, although performance varied among different products [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The current market trend is attributed to a fourfold resonance of policy, cost, supply, and demand. The central economic work conference has set a tone for stable growth, and policies promoting consumption remain unchanged [5]. - Rising international geopolitical tensions have increased crude oil prices, which are expected to stabilize and support the profitability recovery of the chemical industry [6]. - Domestic and international supply constraints are evident, with a notable supply gap in key areas like PX due to the end of the domestic chemical industry's expansion cycle and accelerated exit of overseas capacity [7]. Group 3: Demand and Investment - Post-Chinese New Year, demand is expected to rebound, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in sectors like new energy, real estate, and automotive [7]. - The chemical sector is attracting institutional investment due to its relatively low valuations, with both investment and industrial funds driving up trading activity [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts believe the current market rally represents a phase of valuation correction, with short-term and medium-term trends likely to differ significantly [8]. - In the short term (1-3 months), strong bottom support is anticipated, with the February resumption season expected to further enhance demand growth [8]. - In the medium term (3-6 months), increased differentiation within the chemical sector is expected, with performance largely dependent on demand resilience, supply disruptions, and oil price trends [8].