铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：重心显著上行，高价仓位管理必要性提升 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 元旦后一周传统有色上涨幅度进一步陡峭，铝金属继续和铜领涨，铝价已基本逼近历史记录峰值。现阶段铝现货端表现确实羸弱，但 边际或已经触及较差状态，期现基差走阔引致的无风险套利空间使得现货市场出现大量收货，元旦后现货的基差贴水明显向上修复。 在2026年中期供需面——供给有约束、需求更趋多元化、紧平衡、低库存消费比——能够托底铝价重心向上的微观矛盾友好定价的 市场环境中，板块系统性资金联动配置行情亦助力价格弹性，且此轮牛市资金布局更早更快。1季度权益市场若提前发动春季躁动行 情，不排除再次引发股期联动的资金行为，资金轮动配置行情下，铝金属向上空间仍值得期待。 ◆ 然而特别需要关注的是，当前仓位管理 ...

新华财经上海12月29日电 近期商品期货市场多个品种出现大幅震荡。以白银、碳酸锂等品种为例，在 出现短期大幅上涨后，均于12月29日午后出现大幅回撤。其中白银期货主力合约在一度涨超10%的情况 下，尾盘一度翻绿，收盘仅涨0.51%；而碳酸锂主力合约则在上午创出年内新高后午后快速走低，一度 触及跌停，收盘大跌7.89%。 商品期货市场的大幅波动也给主营业务关联性较强的上市公司股价带来扰动，如国内矿产白银龙头盛达 资源今日上午高开后一度翻绿，此后持续拉升至上午收盘时接近涨停，午后再度回落最终收涨4.52%； 锂矿龙头天齐锂业在此前连续上涨之后再次回落，29日收跌4.54%。 波动传导效应显著 "股期"仍有较多差异 新华财经注意到，2025年以来，A股贵金属和有色金属板块均表现抢眼，全年涨幅居前，吸引了大批投 资者的关注。而对于不少投资者而言，期货已不仅是宏观判断或套期保值的工具，也逐渐成为研判股票 估值的重要参考。从黑色系金属到贵金属，从工业品到农产品，商品期货市场的波动持续影响相关股票 板块。 有业内人士表示，股期联动在历史上已多次出现，但股期联动更多体现在行业板块的相对强弱上，而非 个股层面的绝对收益。商品期 ...

首先，2025年以来，因美国对铜进口关税政策存在不确定性，纽铜持续虹吸其他地区库存，伦铜及沪铜库存已降至历史低位，短期对价格形成较强向上支 撑。 其次，从基本面来看，供给紧平衡格局下，铜价对供给边际扰动的反应敏感度明显提升。2026年铜矿供给趋紧格局基本确定，供需增速差值有望推升价格中 枢上移。 最后，美联储降息周期开启，复盘历史铜价表现，美联储降息周期结束后的全球流动性宽松背景叠加需求改善，往往推动铜价进入历史性上涨周期。考虑目 前美国经济数据表现相对疲软，美联储中期宽松预期维持，流动性改善及需求改善有望助推价格上涨。 锂电产业链走强，带动新能源赛道反弹，阳光电源（300274）、多氟多（002407）、比亚迪（002594）等龙头股大涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.19%，深证成指上涨0.17%，创业板指下跌0.15%。 有色金属板块上涨 今天上午，有色金属板块上涨，贵金属、工业金属等板块上涨。 铜方面，方正证券表示，预计短期全球铜库存流向持续调整、铜矿端供给短缺逻辑持续强化、美联储中期宽松预期维持，铜价有望继续向上突破。 "股期联动"效应显著。 今天上午，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货 ...

有色金属板块走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳钼业上涨，盘中股价均创历史新高，最新市值分别为8868亿元、4213亿元。 锂电产业链走强，带动新能源赛道反弹，阳光电源、多氟多、比亚迪等龙头股大涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.19%，深证成指上涨0.17%，创业板指下跌0.15%。 "股期联动"效应显著。 今天上午，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破13万 元/吨关口。 有色金属板块上涨 今天上午，有色金属板块上涨，贵金属、工业金属等板块上涨。 | | ▼ | 工业金属 4293.62 2.58% | A | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 国城矿业 融 000688 | | 29.13 | 10.01% | 345亿 | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 11:04 | | | | | | 江西铜川 融 600362 | | 48.30 | 9.97% | 1002亿 ...

"股期联动"效应显著。 今天上午，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破13万 元/吨关口。 有色金属板块走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳钼业上涨，盘中股价均创历史新高，最新市值分别为8868亿元、4213亿元。 锂电产业链走强，带动新能源赛道反弹，阳光电源、多氟多、比亚迪等龙头股大涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.19%，深证成指上涨0.17%，创业板指下跌0.15%。 有色金属板块上涨 今天上午，有色金属板块上涨，贵金属、工业金属等板块上涨。 新能源赛道走强 今天上午，新能源赛道上涨，锂电产业链、光伏、储能等板块走强，阳光电源、恩捷股份、比亚迪、多氟多等龙头股上涨。 | 工业等属 | 4293.62 2.58% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金 成分股 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 国城矿业 融 000688 | 29.13 | 10.01% | 345亿 | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 11:04 | | | | ...

"股期联动"效应显著。 今天上午，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破13万 元/吨关口。 有色金属板块走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业（601899）、洛阳钼业（603993）上涨，盘中股价均创历史新高，最新市值分别为8868亿元、4213亿元。 锂电产业链走强，带动新能源赛道反弹，阳光电源（300274）、多氟多（002407）、比亚迪（002594）等龙头股大涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.19%，深证成指上涨0.17%，创业板指下跌0.15%。 有色金属板块上涨 今天上午，有色金属板块上涨，贵金属、工业金属等板块上涨。 | 工业金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4293.62 2.58% | | | | | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 国城矿业 融 000688 | | 29.13 | 10.01% | 345亿 | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 11:04 | | ...

贵金属市场本周表现抢眼，白银期货以超过6%的涨幅成为市场焦点。白银的强势表现主要受到两方面 因素推动：一是市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期升温，特别是对新任主席可能延续宽松政策的猜测； 二是全球主要铜生产商联合声明引发了市场对铜矿产能调整的担忧，白银作为副产品供给可能相应收 缩。但投资者需保持警惕，一旦地缘政治风险缓和或者利多因素出尽，银价可能出现技术性回调。 需求提振 棕榈油持续上涨 本周国内商品期货市场呈现明显分化格局，有色金属和贵金属表现抢眼，而能源化工板块延续弱势。具 体来看，沪铜以超过2%的涨幅领跑有色金属板块，沪锌跟涨1.4%；贵金属方面，白银期货表现尤为亮 眼，涨幅超过6%；农产品板块中，棕榈油涨幅超过1%，豆粕则几乎持平；工业品方面，合成橡胶和黑 色系品种表现不俗，其中焦炭大涨超3%，铁矿石也录得1%以上的涨幅。 供应紧张 推高铜价创历史新高 本周有色金属板块整体表现强劲，其中沪铜期货价格突破关键阻力位，创下历史新高。伦敦金属交易所 铜价和上海期货交易所沪铜价格同步上涨，这一现象主要受到供应紧张和需求增长的双重推动。供给 端，智利等主要产铜国产量不及预期，铜精矿短缺导致加工费维持低位；需求端，新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market continues, but it is still a structural one. Investing in stock index futures may be more advantageous than stocks. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market due to the re - evaluation of physical resource values [50] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Review - **Driving Sectors of the Bull Market**: New energy, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication are the main drivers of the current bull market. Industries such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals have made significant contributions to the index increase from April 10, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [6] - **Industry Performance Details**: Different industries show various performance indicators in terms of weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, and annual returns, as well as maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and other metrics. For example, the comprehensive industry has high returns in multiple time - frames, while the beauty care industry has negative returns in the short - term [7] - **Index Valuation - Risk Premium Rate**: As of the latest trading day, the risk premium rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 6.5%, 5.2%, 1.2%, and 0.3% respectively. From a configuration perspective, large - cap indexes are more cost - effective than small - and medium - cap indexes [10] - **Index Valuation - 2026 Estimation**: Analysts' 2026 EPS estimates for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 10.6, 6.8, 1.8, and 1.1 respectively. For the ChiNext and STAR 50, the estimates are 7.6 and 4.7. The estimates show that analysts are pessimistic about the profit improvement of large - cap indexes, optimistic about CSI 500 and ChiNext (with a weakening trend recently), and neutral about CSI 1000 and STAR 50 [18] - **Fund Inflow**: Margin trading funds continue to flow into broad - based indexes, with different trends for different indexes. From the perspective of theme ETFs, large - cap, small - cap, and micro - cap indexes have continuous inflows, while medium - cap indexes have a slowdown in inflow [20] - **Industry Fund Inflow**: In terms of margin trading funds, the power equipment industry has continuous inflows, while the computer, non - bank finance, and automobile industries have short - term outflows. Most industries in theme ETFs maintain a net inflow trend, except for the military and food and beverage industries [24] - **Private Fund Filing**: The filing speed of private funds is still slow. In November, 112 private funds were liquidated and 54 were newly issued; in October, 292 were liquidated and 608 were newly issued [25] 3.2 Stock - Futures Linkage - **Understanding Stock - Futures Linkage**: Stock - futures linkage is affected by factors such as demand, supply, price, cost, profit, valuation, and macro - factors. There is a relationship between commodity futures and resource stocks [29] - **Linkage in Different Sectors**: - **Precious Metals**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, gold futures rose 93% and gold stocks rose 117%; silver futures rose 99% and silver stocks rose 118%. The pricing is related to the overflow of macro - liquidity [35] - **Copper and Aluminum**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, copper futures rose 25% and copper stocks rose 69%; aluminum futures rose 9% and aluminum stocks rose 83%. The pricing is related to AI - related power demand and power supply for electrolytic aluminum [38] - **New Energy**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate futures fell 7% and lithium mining stocks rose 59%. From December 26, 2024, to November 20, 2025, polysilicon futures rose 25% and polysilicon stocks rose 33%. The pricing is related to anti - involution policies and the bottom - up reversal of lithium carbonate [42] - **Coal and Real Estate**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, coking coal futures fell 41% and coal stocks rose 10%; glass futures rose 45% and real estate stocks rose 12%. The pricing of coking coal is related to short - term supply surplus, while coal has stable dividends. Glass also has supply surplus, but real estate may have a reversal [46] - **Advanced Usage of Stock - Futures Linkage**: In fully cleared industries, the cost - to - price ratio can be estimated through the linkage between stock prices and futures prices, and then the elasticity between futures and stocks can be calculated. By comparing the estimated cost - to - price ratio with industrial reality, it can be determined which is more overvalued or undervalued between commodities and stocks [47] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The bull market continues, but it is a structural one. It is recommended to consider stock index futures. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, mainly due to the release of some negative sentiment from the public notice of a mine by the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The strong current and expected demand drove the price to rise with increased positions [3]. - The current market has strong supply and demand. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the supply - side expectations are wavering, which may cause significant price fluctuations. Although the SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October and is expected to remain strong from November to December, it still faces the problem of ore shortage. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand, the off - season performance in the first quarter of next year, and the renewal policy. The expected demand for energy storage may generate speculative demand when the price drops, raising the price center. The social inventory is continuing to be destocked, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant. The market is tight in November and December, but if a certain production capacity resumes in the near future, it may ease in December. In the long run, if the price drops due to resumed production, it is a good time to buy at a low price [4]. - The current demand is still strong, and the downstream procurement demand is still strong. After the previous price drop, the price was quickly pulled up to fill the gap, with obvious support. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy appropriately after a pull - back. Due to the expected resumed production and off - season expectations, direct chasing of long positions is not recommended, but long positions can be arranged when the price pulls back [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, driven by strong demand and the release of some negative sentiment from the mine notice [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October, expected to be strong from November to December, but facing ore shortage [4]. - Demand: Apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to demand continuation, off - season performance, and renewal policy. Expected energy - storage demand may generate speculative demand when prices drop [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory is destocking, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant [4]. - Balance: The market is tight in November and December. If a certain production capacity resumes, it may ease in December. In the long run, a price drop due to resumed production is a buying opportunity [4]. Summary and Strategy - The current demand is strong, and the downstream procurement demand is high. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy after a pull - back. Do not directly chase long positions, but arrange long positions when the price pulls back [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].