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卢卡申科的预测应验了,中国打通第二条路,波兰阻拦中欧贸易失败
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 11:36
Core Points - Poland has closed its border with Belarus, affecting the Central European rail freight routes, which previously handled 90% of the cargo traffic, leading to significant disruptions in supply chains for European companies [1][3] - The value of goods stuck at the border is estimated at €25 billion, primarily consisting of electronic products, auto parts, and photovoltaic components [1] - The closure has resulted in weekly losses of millions of euros for companies in Germany and France, with the EU Supply Chain Monitoring Center warning of prolonged disruptions [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The rail route's interruption has caused a 10.6% increase in freight volume in the first half of the year, with the value of goods rising by 85% to €250.7 billion [1] - German and French companies are experiencing production halts due to supply chain disruptions, leading to increased costs and idle workers [1][3] - The overall trade volume between Central Europe was €732 billion last year, with rail transport being a smaller segment, but its disruption is exacerbating economic recovery challenges [1] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Poland's foreign minister has publicly called on China to pressure Russia, indicating a strategic political maneuver to leverage trade routes for political purposes [3][4] - Belarusian officials have accused Poland of using political motives rather than genuine security concerns for the border closure [3][4] - The EU's response has been mixed, with major economies like Germany and France pushing for a swift resolution to maintain trade flow [3][4] Group 3: Alternative Routes - In response to the border closure, China and Russia have initiated the "Arctic Fast Shipping" route, significantly reducing transit times from 37 days to 18 days, while also lowering logistics costs [4][5] - The new Arctic route avoids traditional shipping lanes, enhancing safety and efficiency, and is expected to provide a reliable alternative for trade with Europe [5][7] - The closure has inadvertently accelerated the diversification of trade routes, with companies exploring options through the Middle East corridor, despite higher costs and longer transit times [7][8]