中东专家路演：中东地缘重构与大国博弈再审视 20260302 摘要 美伊冲突升级至"战争性质"，规模与影响或超 2003 年伊拉克战争， 战略目标从"消灭核能力"升级为"推翻政权"，但伊朗体量决定短期 军事行动难以实现政权更替，冲突或将长期化。 袭杀伊朗最高领袖梅内伊是高度冒险的升级动作，可能触动什叶派整体 政治宗教神经，引发更强烈持久的报复，地区社会动员迹象已显现，或 加剧地区不稳定。 伊朗报复行动强度与范围显著提升，打击对象从以色列扩展至美国在中 东的所有军事基地，并暗示后续可能投入"从未面世的神秘武器"，冲 突存在进一步升级空间。 美伊双方均"难以停手"，伊朗持续打击造成美以损失，而美伊目标设 定为政权更替，未达成目标难以收手，否则将损害其国际声望，双方均 面临"没有退路"的约束。 1979 年伊斯兰革命是美伊关系从盟友走向长期对抗的关键拐点，此后 人质事件使双方长期处于冷战式对抗，虽有两伊战争期间的"伊朗门事 件"等非常规缓和迹象，但总体对抗趋势未变。 Q&A 如何评估本轮美国、以色列对伊朗军事打击的突发性、规模强度及其在中东乃 至全球格局中的重要性？ 本轮美国、以色列对伊朗的军事打击具有明显突发性。 ...

此次美以联合对伊朗发布袭击正值美伊谈判之际，双方爆发军事冲突意味着谈判基本宣告 破裂，伊朗政权的内部稳定性较为脆弱，叠加美国对伊朗展开极限军事施压，导致区域局 势复杂程度显著加剧 伊朗问题的本质原因在于大国博弈，以色列亟待对伊朗采取强硬军事行动以转移国内舆论 压力并提升政府威望，特朗普政府倾向于将内部矛盾转移至外部，通过打击伊朗激发右翼 民族主义基本盘 短期看，伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡或对美国在中东的利益发动攻击，地区冲突成本或转 嫁给全球经济；长期看，中东地缘政治风险或进入不可控的高危区间，美国可能被迫从"离 岸平衡"重新转向深度地面介入 中东地缘政治风险升级或对全球原油供给造成严重扰动，国际油价短期内或出现大幅上涨， 国际投资者避险情绪显著攀升，黄金的避险属性得到进一步增强 美以联合突袭伊朗，中东地缘政治风 险陡增 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇、张敏 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 28 日，以色列宣布袭击伊朗，以色列国防部长称已对伊朗 发动"先发制人"打击，并宣布以色列全境进入紧急状态。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道， 多枚导弹击中德黑兰市中心多处目标。美联社表 ...

以前大家总觉得，核大国之间有条约管着，你家有多少弹头，我家有多少导弹，大家心里都有个底，谁也不敢掀桌子。 现在倒好，这层窗户纸被捅破了，大家各玩各的，谁也不知道对方兜里到底藏了多少杀手锏。 联合国那边急得像热锅上的蚂蚁，秘书长古特雷斯嗓子都喊哑了，让美俄赶紧坐下来谈，可谁理他呀？ 欧洲那些国家更是吓得够呛，表面上还得跟着大哥喊口号，背地里却在琢磨万一真打起来，自己是不是那第一批倒霉的炮灰。 这事儿说到底，还得怪当初特朗普政府种下的因。 他们那时候就不想续约，觉得这合同捆住了美国的手脚。 其实这背后的算计明摆着呢，就是想摆脱束缚，搞核扩张，顺便还能在国际局势里多捞点筹码。 俄罗斯那边一看，你都不守规矩了，我还装什么正人君子？ 普京直接下了死命令，什么"匕首"、"锆石"这些高超音速导弹，通通加速部署。 这就是在明白无误地告诉对面：核大国不止你一个，真要玩命，谁也别想全身而退。 现在的俄乌战场，早就不是两个邻居打架那么简单了，这背后是美、俄、欧三方在下的一盘大棋。 所以他们在掏腰包的时候，那是慎之又慎，生怕把自家底子给掏空了。 而波兰、波罗的海那些靠近前线的国家，那是真怕了，天天催着欧盟加大力度。 这种"同床异梦" ...

那么，为什么中国不急于庆祝呢？首先，现实情况是，中国早已将关税冲击视为常态，产业链和市场的多元化早在过去几年就已开始推进。这场所谓的胜 利，其实是经过长期结构调整后的必然结果，就像你每天按时吃饭时，早已不再为此庆祝一样。其次，更重要的原因是，这次裁决实际上是美国内部权力斗 争的结果，是最高法院对总统权力范围的裁定，而非中美谈判桌上的胜利果实。如果中国高调庆祝，很容易被美国媒体解读为挑衅，给特朗普提供反击的机 会，从而失去掌控局面的主动权。 这就是中国不急于庆祝的根本原因。你赢了一次，但特朗普依然能用第二套、第三套剧本来继续施压。要彻底遏制他，美国最高法院还得一条条地去审查， 而这注定将是一场长期的消耗战。接下来局势如何演变呢？特朗普将继续把关税政治化，将其作为转移国内矛盾和对外施压的万能工具。他会继续逼迫盟友 站队，对内则用强硬来吸引选民的注意，尤其是在经济数据不如预期时，这种手段最能激起民众的情绪反应。 美国的2025年最后一个季度GDP增长仅为1.4%，远低于特朗普的预期，也低于外界的预期。经济的疲软使得特朗普更需要通过关税来制造我在战斗的形 象，保持其政治威望。与此同时，中国的战略重点并不在于口头上的胜 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：笔记侠 笔记君说： 历史的洪流从不提前打招呼，但总有人能通过周期读懂它的走向。瑞·达利欧在慕尼黑安全会议的喧嚣 背后，看到了更本质的东西：世界已经换轨。 在最新长文中，他详细拆解了从"有秩序"到"失序"的临界点。 当大国博弈不再寻求法律仲裁，而是回归原始的丛林法则，我们习以为常的和平红利、全球化红利，或 许都将被重新定价。 在慕尼黑安全会议上，1945年后的世界秩序被大多数领导人宣告死亡，其背后的图景在题为《正在解 构》的《2026年安全报告》中得以呈现。 更具体地说，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨表示："持续数十年的世界秩序已不复存在"，我们正处于一 个"强权政治"时期。他明确表示，在这个新时代，自由"不再是理所当然"。 法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙呼应了默茨的判断，并表示欧洲与先前世界秩序挂钩的旧安全架构已不存 在，欧洲必须为战争做准备。美国国务卿马可·卢比奥表示，我们正处于一个"新的地缘政治时代"，因 为"旧世界"已经消失。 用我的话来说，我们正处于大周期中的第六阶段，这个阶段的特点是出现巨大失序，源于我们身处一个 没有规则、强权即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflicting statements between former President Trump and Indian officials regarding India's oil purchasing policy from Russia, highlighting the complexities of international relations and national interests in energy procurement [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trump's Claims and India's Response - Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil in exchange for a reduction in tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs later clarified that India's oil procurement policy remains unchanged, emphasizing that national interests guide their decisions [1][3]. Group 2: India's Oil Import Dynamics - India is the world's third-largest oil consumer, relying on imports for approximately 90% of its oil needs, with Russia being a significant supplier [3]. - In January, India's oil imports from Russia were about 1.2 million barrels per day, expected to decrease to 1 million barrels in February and around 800,000 barrels in March, indicating a shift in import strategy under U.S. pressure [3]. Group 3: Russia's Position - Russia's officials stated that they see no reason for India to change its stance on purchasing Russian oil, asserting that it benefits both parties and contributes to the stability of the international energy market [3][5]. - The Russian government expressed willingness to continue close cooperation with India regarding oil supplies [3]. Group 4: India's Strategic Autonomy - India's approach to energy procurement is driven by the principles of supply security, reasonable pricing, and stable sources, indicating a preference for cost-effective and reliable suppliers [3][6]. - The article suggests that India's decision-making power in this context reflects its national interests, demonstrating that reliance on one country does not equate to dependency [6][7].

阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解） 一份措辞犀利的讲话稿在网上流传，核心观点就一句，人民币最大的敌人，是中国人自己。 这话听起来刺耳，甚至有些"恨铁不成钢"的味道。 但如果你仔细看完里头的逻辑链，再对照当下的现实，背后那股寒意，恐怕不是空穴来风。 全球半导体产业的半壁江山，现在是谁在掌舵？ 英特尔的陈立武、博通的陈福阳、AMD的苏姿丰……全球前五大芯片厂商，华裔掌门人占了多数。 再看营收巨头，台积电、联发科、英伟达（文中"漫威304"疑为笔误）、瑞昱、联咏、SK海力士，哪个 背后没有华人技术和管理团队的身影？ 这说明了什么？说明在决定人类下一轮科技革命走向的顶级智力竞赛场，华人族群的表现，堪称碾压 级。 再看奥数、AI这些硬核竞技场，西方国家的顶尖代表队里，华裔面孔几乎成了"标配"。 这背后是东亚儒家文化圈极致的"内卷"自强，叠加一些研究中提到的族群智力优势，共同造就的恐怖竞 争力。 按理说，拥有这样一群"最强大脑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Iran's complex relationship with China and the West, highlighting Iran's attempts to leverage its oil exports to China as a bargaining chip while facing internal and external pressures [1][3][11]. Group 1: Iran's Strategy and Miscalculations - Iran relies heavily on China for 80% of its oil exports but is simultaneously trying to engage with Western countries, which is seen as a strategic miscalculation [1][3]. - The Iranian leadership appears to be using a "moral coercion" strategy, believing that by positioning itself as a defender of China against the U.S., it can extract concessions from China [3][5]. - There is a significant disconnect between the Iranian leadership's perception of its importance to China and the reality of China's diversified partnerships in the Middle East, which diminishes Iran's leverage [11][13]. Group 2: Internal Dynamics and Economic Challenges - Iran's internal political landscape is fragmented, with hardliners seeking to gain political capital through anti-American rhetoric while pragmatists aim for economic recovery but lack influence [5][10]. - The Iranian economy is in dire straits, with rampant inflation and currency devaluation leading to public discontent, which complicates the government's ability to negotiate effectively [8][10]. - Ordinary Iranians are more concerned with immediate economic survival than geopolitical strategies, indicating a disconnect between the elite's ambitions and the public's needs [5][10]. Group 3: Military and Strategic Context - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, showcasing a readiness to respond to Iranian provocations, which puts additional pressure on Iran [7][15]. - Iran's military capabilities are outdated compared to modern warfare standards, creating a significant gap in defense capabilities against U.S. forces [8][10]. - The ongoing tensions and military posturing suggest that while direct conflict has not yet erupted, the situation remains volatile and precarious [15][20]. Group 4: Diplomatic Relations and Future Outlook - Recent diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran have been characterized as deadlocked, with Iran facing demands that threaten its regime's legitimacy [15][16]. - China's support for Iran is limited, as it prioritizes its own strategic interests and does not intend to be drawn into Iran's conflicts, highlighting a potential shift in Iran's expectations [16][18]. - The article concludes that Iran's attempts to manipulate its relationship with China and the U.S. may backfire, leading to further isolation and economic hardship [20].

Core Viewpoint - Russia is signaling a willingness to return to the US dollar settlement system under the condition of lifting sanctions, marking a significant shift from its previous stance of de-dollarization and heavy investment in gold and the yuan [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Russia's economy has been under severe pressure since being excluded from the SWIFT system and facing asset freezes, leading to stagnation with GDP growth dropping below 1% [1][2]. - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with the central bank lowering the key interest rate from 16% to 15.5% but still projecting annual inflation between 4.5% and 5.5% [1][2]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The official exchange rate of the ruble appears stable, but the black market rate has exceeded 88 rubles per dollar, indicating high costs for currency exchange and restricted cross-border trade [2]. - Russia's energy exports have faced challenges as countries like India and the EU reduce purchases, leading to a significant fiscal deficit and the need for new economic strategies [2][5]. Strategic Adjustments - Returning to the dollar settlement system could drastically reduce the cost of ruble conversion and potentially lead to a sharp appreciation of the ruble, which could negatively impact export revenues [5][7]. - Russia is offering favorable conditions to attract US capital, including opening up key resource projects, indicating a strategic pivot rather than a complete abandonment of previous policies [5][15]. Implications for China-Russia Relations - The shift towards the dollar may temporarily disrupt the yuan's internationalization process, but it is unlikely to lead to a complete breakdown in China-Russia cooperation, which has deepened beyond energy trade into technology and infrastructure [7][17]. - China may gain leverage in negotiations for energy prices as Russia seeks to alleviate economic pressures while navigating Western sanctions [9][15]. Global Financial Landscape - The situation illustrates that de-dollarization is not a binary choice; countries will maintain ties to the dollar for its liquidity while pursuing a multi-currency framework [19][21]. - The evolving dynamics highlight the importance of strategic cooperation and the need for China to optimize its partnership with Russia amidst these changes [21].

而就在这时，第62届慕尼黑安全会议如期召开。原本是全球政要、战略专家们展示才智、讨论全球安全的盛大舞台，但近年来，这个舞台的气氛显然变得 凝重了许多。去年，美国副总统万斯在慕安会上居高临下的言辞，为在场的欧洲政界、军界和智库人士上了一课。那些平时谈笑风生、轻松自如的精英 们，面对这一场教训，显得异常尴尬，场面虽然没有完全失控，但那种不自在的氛围谁都能感受到。进入今年，欧洲的焦虑情绪未见减轻。美国的行事风 格越发让人捉摸不透，从买下格陵兰岛的荒诞言辞，到将贸易当作武器对外施压，再到频繁拆解多边机制，特朗普时代的行为方式越来越难以预测，令欧 洲倍感不安。 在慕尼黑安全会议的舞台上，中国外交部长王毅的讲话犹如一声警钟，直指欧洲的核心问题——欧洲不应被摆上菜单。这一句话既像是对某些人温和的提 醒，又仿佛是在敲响一记警示的钟声。事实上，当大国博弈开始重新划分全球安全版图时，欧洲的声音是否正在悄然消退，成为局外人的一个潜在现实？ 一月份，俄罗斯、美国和乌克兰三方在阿布扎比的闭门会谈悄然进行，讨论的焦点是俄乌冲突的安全问题。虽然场面平静，消息也并未满天飞，但有一个 令人深思的细节引人注目：欧盟并未参与到核心的谈判当中。对于 ...