Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Jia Mei Packaging, Zhong Bao Hong Kong, is planning a change in control, which may lead to a change in the actual controller of the company. The stock will be suspended from trading starting December 10, 2025, for up to two trading days due to this uncertainty [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jia Mei Packaging is a platform enterprise serving beverage brands across the entire industry chain, providing R&D, design, production, and sales of beverage packaging containers, as well as beverage formula development, filling production, and marketing services [2]. - The company owns 17 subsidiaries covering various business segments, including tinplate, three-piece cans, two-piece cans, and various packaging materials for beverage filling OEM [2]. Group 2: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Zhong Bao Hong Kong holds 44.75% of Jia Mei Packaging's shares, with Chen Min and Li Cuiling as the actual controllers. On November 18, Zhong Bao Hong Kong announced plans to reduce its holdings by up to 1.5 million shares, accounting for 0.16% of the total share capital [3]. - The second and third largest shareholders, Fu Xin Investment and Zhong Kai Investment, also announced plans to reduce their holdings by approximately 9.34 million shares, representing 1% of the total share capital [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company's net profit dropped to a record low of 17.03 million yuan in 2022, but showed significant recovery in 2023 and 2024. However, in the first three quarters of 2025, Jia Mei Packaging's profitability weakened again, with total revenue of 2.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.94%, and a net profit of 39.16 million yuan, down 47.25% year-on-year [9]. - Despite the financial challenges, Jia Mei Packaging's stock price has been rising, with a 16% increase over three trading days, closing at 4.56 yuan per share on December 9, 2025, giving it a market value of 4.36 billion yuan [11].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Baosteel Packaging [2][8] Core Views - Baosteel Packaging is the first domestic enterprise to mass-produce two-piece cans, benefiting significantly from the improvement in industry dynamics [7][8] - The demand for two-piece cans is primarily driven by the increase in canning rates, with a projected demand of approximately 57.1 billion cans by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of about 2.0% from 2022 to 2025 [7][45] - The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, leading to increased supply-side concentration and a recovery in profitability for major players [7][8][59] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baosteel Packaging focuses on the research, production, and sales of two-piece cans and tinplate products, with its first two-piece can production line established in 1998 [18][20] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, primarily controlled by China Baowu Steel Group, which holds approximately 52.98% of the shares [38][43] Industry Dynamics - The two-piece can market is expected to see a significant increase in demand due to rising canning rates, particularly in the beer and carbonated beverage sectors [45][46] - The industry has undergone a transformation from a fragmented competitive landscape to a more consolidated one, enhancing the profitability of leading players [59][60] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The total revenue for Baosteel Packaging is projected to reach 83.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 1.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [6][8] - The company’s overseas revenue is expected to grow significantly, reaching 2.38 billion yuan in 2024, a 25.8% increase year-on-year [7][30] Operational Efficiency - Baosteel Packaging has established a comprehensive factory layout across China, enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs [7][30] - The company maintains a strong cash flow and operational efficiency, with a stable interest expense of around 30 million yuan [7][15]