Core Insights - The潮玩 (trendy toy) market has seen significant growth during the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with increased consumer activity in shopping districts [1] - TOP TOY, a subsidiary of Miniso Group, has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially becoming the second publicly listed trendy toy brand in China after Pop Mart [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is projected to reach 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, with nearly 50% of revenue coming from self-developed products, making it the leading trendy toy brand in China [2] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% in GMV from 2022 to 2024, and it was the fastest trendy toy brand to surpass 1 billion yuan in annual GMV [2] - For 2024, TOP TOY expects to achieve a revenue of 1.909 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with the first half of 2025 showing a revenue of 1.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [2] Industry Trends - The Chinese trendy toy market is expanding, with retail sales projected to grow from 20.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 58.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 23.2% [2] - The market is expected to reach 82.5 billion yuan by 2025 and exceed 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 20.9% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - The industry is evolving beyond simple toy products to become carriers of emotions and culture, with a focus on IP value and innovative consumer experiences [3] Policy Support - Recent government policies, including a two-year pilot program to support innovative consumer products, are expected to provide financial backing and promote innovation in the trendy toy sector [3] - The pilot program will allocate up to 400 million yuan per city for cities selected to participate, which includes support for trendy toys among other sectors [3] - This policy is anticipated to create a favorable environment for companies focusing on IP development and immersive experiences, marking a potential window of opportunity for growth [4]