中国 证券研究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 阿里巴巴 "平头哥"IPO 消息是市场情绪催化剂；估值"选择权 价值"确实存在，但交易受可信度及结构驱动 媒体报道称，阿里巴巴正准备推进旗下人工智能芯片业务"平头哥" 单独上市。彭博社报道（链接）称，阿里巴巴可能首先对该业务进行 内部重组，改造为部分员工持股，随后再探索 IPO 可能性，具体时间 尚未确定。"平头哥"成立于 2018 年，开发用于数据中心、人工智 能和物联网的芯片，是阿里巴巴更广泛的"人工智能+云基础设施" 举措的核心。阿里巴巴尚未就该报道发表评论。 我们的观点：对讯息释放而非数字本身感到惊讶 我们对报道举措感到惊讶，因为这意味着向资本市场"价值释放"选 择权的重大回归。根据我们的粗略计算，采用同业企业价值/收入区 间和激进的 2026 年收入替代指标，平头哥单独上市估值数字可能在 250-620 亿美元（约占阿里巴巴当前市值的 6-14%）。我们认为这是 潜在短期情绪催化剂，而非短期盈利驱动因素，尤其是当市场快速判 定该事件不太可能在 2026 年发生的的情况下。 定位框架：短期 vs 长期 短期而言，我们将其视为重大消息驱动，直至消息确认。该 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on NVIDIA's H20 chip resuming exports to China and its implications for the domestic semiconductor sector and investment opportunities [1][2]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - NVIDIA's H20 chip has resumed exports to China, with CEO Jensen Huang announcing immediate deliveries and the launch of the RTX Pro GPU for industrial digital twin scenarios [1]. - Despite strong performance in the Hang Seng Technology Index, domestic semiconductor indices like the Guozheng Chip Index showed weakness [1]. Historical Context of Semiconductor Restrictions - In October 2022, NVIDIA was prohibited from selling flagship AI chips A100 and H100, leading to the development of the A800 and H800, which had a performance reduction of about 30% but met basic needs [2]. - In October 2023, further restrictions included the A800 and H800, prompting NVIDIA to create the H20, L20, and L2 chips, with H20's performance being only 15%-30% of H100 but with increased memory [2]. - By April 2025, the H20 chip will also be banned from sales to China, with analysts estimating NVIDIA could lose $13.5 billion in revenue due to these restrictions [2]. Market Trends and Domestic Growth - The semiconductor sector has shown resilience, benefiting from the "domestic substitution" and "self-sufficiency" concepts, with IDC data indicating that China's chip market will exceed 900,000 units in the first half of 2024, with local AI chip brands accounting for 20% of the market [3]. - TrendForce forecasts a decrease in the proportion of outsourced chips in China's AI server market from 63% in 2024 to 42% in 2025, while local suppliers' share is expected to rise to 40% [3]. Future Prospects - The article emphasizes the urgency for NVIDIA regarding the H20 chip's export status, as the domestic semiconductor industry is focused on increasing the localization rate of computing chips across the supply chain [4]. - Despite current challenges, the domestic chip sector is expected to improve its market share through software and hardware advancements [5]. - The semiconductor sector is anticipated to see a potential rebound, especially with the IPOs of companies like Muxi Co. and Moore Threads, which are positioned to enhance GPU chip design capabilities [5]. Conclusion - The article concludes that selling underperforming semiconductor-themed funds is not advisable at this time, as the industry is poised for growth driven by domestic innovation and market dynamics [6].