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龙湖集团(0960.HK)2025年年度业绩点评:开发业务承压引致业绩下行 运营及服务业务筑牢经营韧性
Ge Long Hui· 2026-03-29 13:37
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 97.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.7%, primarily due to a 30.0% drop in development business revenue [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion yuan, down 90.2% year-on-year, mainly due to a 6.3 percentage point decrease in overall gross margin to 9.7%, resulting from losses in the development business [1][2] Development Business Performance - The development business revenue for 2025 was 70.54 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 30.0% [2] - The gross profit for the development business was -4.85 billion yuan for the year [2] Operational and Service Business Performance - The operational business generated revenue of 14.19 billion yuan in 2025, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 75.6%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The service business revenue was 12.58 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.3%, down 2.6 percentage points [2] - The company added 13 new operational malls in 2025, with a total of 99 operational malls by year-end, and rental income reached 11.21 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Position - As of the end of 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 152.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.5 billion yuan from the previous year [3] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio, excluding restricted funds, was 1.14 times [3] - The average financing cost was 3.51%, down 0.49 percentage points from the end of the previous year [3] Earnings Forecast Adjustment - Due to pressure on the profit margin from the development business, the company has lowered its EPS forecasts for 2026-2028 to 0.14, 0.15, and 0.16 yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a buy rating and a target price of 14.15 HKD, supported by the solid financial position and growth potential of the operational and service businesses [3]