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菊酯市场行情展望
2025-11-07 01:28
Summary of the Pyrethroid Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pyrethroid industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to rising raw material costs, particularly for benzyl triphosphate, which has increased from 37,000-37,500 CNY/ton to 53,000 CNY/ton, with expectations to reach 60,000 CNY/ton [1][5] - Major players in the industry, such as Yangnong, are implementing measures like halting quotes and controlling order volumes to manage rising costs [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Adjustments**: Yangnong has slightly increased the prices of Kungfu pyrethroid from 105,000 CNY/ton to 108,000 CNY/ton and phenobarbital pyrethroid from 125,000 CNY/ton to 128,000 CNY/ton, indicating a gradual price increase trend [3][6] - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The total production capacity of major domestic pyrethroid manufacturers is approximately 15,000 tons, with an actual achievement rate of about 70%. This indicates a relatively balanced supply-demand relationship, although there is still some oversupply [4][11] - **Impact of Raw Material Prices**: The increase in raw material prices is expected to directly raise the costs of downstream products like Kungfu pyrethroid and phenobarbital pyrethroid, creating significant pricing pressure [5][10] - **Market Strategy**: Yangnong's strategy includes a cautious approach to pricing amid raw material shortages and low inventory levels, with expectations of continued price increases in the near future [6][9] Additional Important Insights - **Market Concentration**: The pyrethroid market is highly concentrated, with only a few companies dominating production. If one company halts production, it can lead to supply shortages and subsequent price increases [15] - **Export Market Trends**: The domestic market has seen a clear upward price trend, while the export market has not fully adjusted yet. However, due to rising raw material costs, export prices are expected to increase, potentially surpassing domestic price increases [12] - **Production and Sales Outlook**: November and December are critical production periods leading into the March sales peak of the following year. Companies are expected to ramp up production and stockpiling in anticipation of increased demand [13] Conclusion - The pyrethroid industry is currently facing significant challenges due to raw material price increases and supply chain constraints. Major players like Yangnong are strategically managing their pricing and production to navigate these challenges, while the overall market dynamics suggest a potential for continued price increases in the coming months.