Core Insights - The Australian loan market is experiencing intensified competition, with two banks lowering mortgage rates to the "4" range, including one that has set the lowest fixed rate currently available [1][2] - There is a growing expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will implement a "double rate cut" of 0.5 percentage points in the upcoming meeting [1][5] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Changes - Bank of Queensland has reduced its two-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.89%, making it the lowest standard mortgage rate available for owner-occupiers with a 20% deposit [2] - ME Bank has introduced a two-year fixed rate of 4.99%, while Macquarie Bank has also lowered its rate to below 5% earlier this week [2] - Currently, 18 lending institutions offer at least one fixed-rate product below 5%, while only Police Credit Union offers a variable rate below 5% [5] Group 2: Market Expectations and Predictions - The market anticipates a 51% chance that the RBA will lower rates to 3.35% in the next board meeting, with ASX indicating a higher likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point cut compared to the four major banks' expectations of only a 0.25 percentage point cut [6] - David Koch from Compare the Market predicts that more banks will follow suit in offering products with rates starting with "4" in the coming days and weeks [6] - A 0.5 percentage point rate cut could save borrowers with an average loan of AUD 660,000 approximately AUD 210 per month, translating to AUD 2,520 annually [6] Group 3: Economic Context - Economists suggest that declining inflation and a softening job market remove barriers to rate cuts [9] - The second quarter CPI data does not indicate any core inflation risks, paving the way for a rate cut in August [9] - There is a significant concern regarding the RBA's credibility if it chooses not to cut rates, as market confidence in a rate cut exceeds 90% [9]