城投公募REITs
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掘金城投公募REITs:基于关键价值研判指标的回溯观察
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-18 15:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report selects 7 core indicators from four dimensions: operation, valuation, liquidity, and transaction price, to construct a value analysis framework for public REITs products. Through the linkage analysis of these indicators, it can provide a quantitative basis for judging the investment value and price trend of urban investment public REITs [1][9][20]. - Different types of underlying assets of public REITs have structured differences in various indicators. The report classifies and compares urban investment REITs products based on the type of underlying assets, and recommends some products with good comprehensive performance for investors' attention [1][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Urban Investment Public REITs Value Judgement Indicators 3.1.1. Operation Indicators - Current operating income reflects the operating results of the underlying assets of REITs products during the reporting period, and its stability and growth determine the sustainability of future distributable cash flows and support the reasonableness of the current valuation level [10]. - Current distributable amount represents the net cash flow available for dividends after deducting various operating expenses, interest expenses, and taxes from the net profit of the REITs project, which measures the dividend - paying ability and cash - flow safety of public REITs products [11]. 3.1.2. Valuation Indicators - Expected REITs dividend rate indicates the annual cash dividend income that investors can obtain based on the current price. A higher dividend rate means stronger cash - return ability [12]. - ChinaBond valuation yield is calculated by the ChinaBond valuation center. A higher yield may indicate that the market price of the REITs is underestimated, while a lower yield may suggest a high price or high - quality assets with low risk [14]. - P/FFO multiple measures the market price level corresponding to each unit of distributable funds. A higher multiple may mean over - valuation, while a lower one may imply undervaluation [15]. 3.1.3. Liquidity Indicator - Daily turnover rate reflects the trading activity of REITs products in the secondary market. A higher turnover rate means better liquidity, high market attention, and frequent capital inflows and outflows [16]. 3.1.4. Transaction Price Indicator - Daily price change measures the change ratio of the market price of REITs products compared with the previous trading day. A price increase reflects market recognition of the project's fundamentals or expected dividends, while a decrease may be due to valuation adjustment or liquidity contraction [17][18][19]. 3.2. Deconstruction of Allocation Value of Urban Investment Public REITs by Indicators 3.2.1. Transportation Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally stable, ranging from 1.33 - 5.35 billion yuan, and the distributable amount showed a differentiated pattern. Leading projects such as CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, Ping An Guangzhou - Heyuan Expressway REIT, and Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT had leading dividend - paying abilities [23][24][25]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall valuation yield of transportation infrastructure REITs remained low, and the dividend rate was generally high. The P/FFO multiple ranged from 6.61 - 12.15 times, showing a trend of convergence [29][30][31]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the market liquidity of transportation infrastructure REITs was generally at a medium - low level, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.07% - 0.57%. The daily price change mostly remained within ±2%, and the overall price fluctuation in the secondary market had converged [36][37]. - **Recommended Targets**: Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo Expressway REIT and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [44]. 3.2.2. Park Infrastructure Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income of park infrastructure REITs was generally low, ranging from 0.19 - 0.26 billion yuan, and the distributable amount was also at a low level, lacking growth momentum [49][50]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the overall dividend rate of park infrastructure REITs slightly rebounded, ranging from 4.35% - 7.46%. The valuation yield ranged from 1.13% - 8.00%, and the P/FFO multiple ranged from 17.88 - 24.09 times, with a high valuation center [54][55][59]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the secondary - market liquidity of park infrastructure REITs showed a differentiated trend, with a daily turnover rate ranging from 0.10% - 4.57%. The daily price change was between - 5.47% and - 0.08%, and the price adjustment amplitude was relatively large in the short term [66][67]. - **Recommended Targets**: CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT and E Fund Guangzhou Development Industrial Park REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [74]. 3.2.3. Affordable Rental Housing Category - **Operation Indicators**: As of Q3 2025, the operating income and distributable amount of affordable rental housing REITs showed a similar differentiated pattern. Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT ranked first in both indicators, and China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT had a strong growth momentum [77]. - **Valuation Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the expected dividend rate of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 3.32%, higher than other similar products. The valuation yield of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 4.61%, the highest among similar products. The P/FFO multiple of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was as high as 53.37 times, while that of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT was 30.17 times, relatively undervalued [83][85]. - **Liquidity and Transaction Price Indicators**: As of October 31, 2025, the daily turnover rate of CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was 1.48%, ranking first in the same category. The price of Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT was relatively stable, while the daily price change of China Asset Management Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was - 0.98%, but the price fluctuation was still controllable [91]. - **Recommended Targets**: Guotai Junan Urban Investment Kuanting Affordable Rental Housing REIT and CICC Xiamen Affordable Housing REIT are recommended for their good comprehensive performance [1]. 3.2.4. Energy Infrastructure Category - Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT has been listed for a short time, and there was a valuation premium at the initial stage of listing. All indicators are still in the process of adjustment and approaching those of other public REITs products. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the operating capacity of its underlying assets. If the operating income and distributable amount improve simultaneously, it is suitable for allocation - type funds to pay attention [1]. 3.2.5. Water Conservancy Facilities Category - Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water Water Conservancy REIT has advantages in operation and expected dividend rate indicators, and performs well in liquidity and price - fluctuation indicators. It is recommended that allocation - type funds pay attention, while the cost - performance for trading - type funds is average [1]. 3.2.6. Municipal Facilities Category - Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT's performance in valuation, liquidity, and price - fluctuation indicators is similar to that of other urban investment public REITs products. Since it has been listed for a short time, it is necessary to observe whether the operating data in the fourth quarter of 2025 can support the long - term dividend - paying ability of its underlying assets [3]. 3.2.7. Warehouse Logistics Category - Hua An Waigaoqiao REIT has a stable operating foundation, strong cash - flow generation ability, high dividend - return expectations, and good liquidity. However, due to its high valuation and large price - fluctuation range, it is recommended that trading - type funds wait for the valuation adjustment stage to seek capital gains, while allocation - type funds can pay attention and obtain medium - and long - term dividend income [1].