专题报告 2025-07-11 铜：美国计划对铜征收 50%关税，影响如何？ 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 特朗普宣布将对铜征收 50%进口关税，8 月 1 日生效。对比钢铝征税范围，铜关税预计包括铜 基础产品和铜衍生品。影响方面，虽然征税消息出来后 COMEX-LME 价差未完全计价关税，但随 着关税落地，预计两地市场价差大概率进一步扩大（预计以 COMEX 铜上涨和 LME 铜下跌共同完 成价差扩大）。不过，考虑到美国从 3 月开始就提前进口大量的铜，预计最终价差比例或低于 50%。关税对货物流的影响体现在，随着 50%的铜关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，预计在此日期前能够 实现到港的铜还将继续流向美国，8 月以后美国进口铜需求预计明显减少，美国以外市场的铜 供应预计将更加充足。 基本面来看，当前铜矿供应维持紧张格局，不过从半年度长单加工费谈判结果看，远期紧张程 度稍弱于预期；废铜原料供应维持偏紧，对价格支撑较强，后续若美国关税落地后中国进口增 多，废铜支撑预计减弱；精炼铜短期供应维持高位， ...

Summary of BorgWarner Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BorgWarner - **Industry**: Automotive components, focusing on powertrain and electrification technologies Key Financial Metrics - **First Quarter Performance**: - Outgrowth of nearly 4% above industry production - Operating margin at approximately 10% - Free cash flow of about $270 million, an increase from the prior year [2][6][88] Tariff Impact and Mitigation - **Tariff Impact**: Initially projected at 1.6% of sales, but has decreased due to effective mitigation strategies and changes in executive orders [3][4] - **Customer Engagement**: Actively working with customers to recover tariff costs [4][6] Industry Production Concerns - **U.S. Market Risks**: Concerns about potential impacts of tariffs on industry production in Q3 and Q4, though current visibility remains strong for Q2 [5][9] Regional Insights - **North America**: - Market expectations adjusted from a decline of 1-3% to 2-4% due to tariff concerns, but Q2 volumes remain strong [8][10] - **Europe**: - Strong demand for e-products, with regulatory clarity on emissions potentially increasing demand for foundational products [16][17] - **China**: - Significant exposure with 20% of overall revenue; local OEMs represent 75% of revenue in China, showing strong performance [18][19] Electrification Trends - **Adoption Rates**: Vary by region, with China leading in BEV adoption, followed by Europe, while North America is expected to grow slower [22][24] - **Hybrid Vehicles**: Increasing opportunities in North America for both foundational and e-products, particularly in hybrid segments [30][31] Market Share and Competition - **Market Dynamics**: Anticipated consolidation in the market as smaller players struggle to compete, potentially increasing BorgWarner's market share [43][44] Capital Allocation Strategy - **M&A Criteria**: Focus on industrial logic, accretive assets, and fair pricing; disciplined approach to potential acquisitions [56][59] - **Capital Utilization**: Emphasis on balancing organic and inorganic investments, stock repurchases, and dividends over a five-year horizon [60] Operational Efficiency - **Margin Management**: Sustained performance with margins above 10% for the last four quarters; focus on cost structure and operational excellence [49][50] - **AI and Automation**: Exploring opportunities for increased efficiency through robotics and AI in manufacturing processes [52][55] Free Cash Flow Generation - **Cash Flow Goals**: Projected midpoint of $700 million for the year; focus on using cash flow for accretive investments or returning capital to shareholders [88][89] Conclusion - **Outlook**: Positive sentiment regarding operational strength, market growth, and the ability to generate free cash flow, with a commitment to outgrowing the industry and enhancing shareholder value [84][88]