Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing significant differentiation, revealing various characteristics and signals through the analysis of new housing minimum down payment data [1][5]. Group 1: Market Accessibility - The overall accessibility of the Shenzhen real estate market is very high [2]. - Projects at the bottom of the "new housing down payment pyramid" can be accessed with down payments below 600,000 yuan [3]. - Many families in Shenzhen's average income bracket can afford such down payments [4]. Group 2: Market Segmentation - The Shenzhen real estate market is in a phase of extreme differentiation, with a stark divide between core and non-core areas in terms of new housing project numbers and inventory [5][6]. - The top tier of the down payment pyramid consists of luxury or quasi-luxury projects, with only 17 projects making up less than 10% of the total new housing inventory [6]. - Lower down payment projects have significantly larger inventory, with the fifth and sixth tiers accounting for over 80% of the total new housing stock, primarily located in peripheral areas [8]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The market is characterized by a struggle between high-end products that sell well and lower-tier products that face intense competition [12]. - The biggest competition for new housing comes not from other projects but from the projects themselves, with newer phases being priced lower than previous ones [13][14]. - For example, the Meiyu Lanwan project has sold only 2 units despite being a quality product, indicating the difficulty of market absorption [18]. Group 4: Inventory and Sales Dynamics - The Deep Industry Mountain Water East City project has seen significant unsold inventory despite multiple sales batches, with prices dropping from 37,900 yuan per square meter to 29,300 yuan per square meter [21]. - The market is in a "vacuum" state, particularly in peripheral areas like Pingshan and Longgang, where supply exceeds demand and concepts are weak [22].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau announced the planned pre-sale of commercial housing for the third quarter of 2025, with 33 projects expected to enter the market, totaling a supply area of 1.3512 million square meters and 12,351 units [1] - Compared to the same period last year, there is a significant decline in commercial housing supply, with a drop of over 25% in both the number of projects and residential units [2] - The reduction in inventory is reflected in transaction data, with a year-on-year increase in pre-sale residential transactions, indicating a potential market recovery [3] Supply Overview - In Q3 2025, 33 commercial housing projects are set to be launched, with residential projects making up the majority at 31 projects, covering an area of 1.08 million square meters and 10,673 units [1] - The supply breakdown includes 2.51 million square meters of serviced apartments (129 units), 6.93 million square meters of commercial space (710 units), and 17.7 million square meters of office space (839 units) [1] - The main supply areas include Bao'an with 7 projects (3,364 residential units) and Guangming with 5 projects (1,702 residential units) [1] Year-on-Year Comparison - In Q3 2024, there were 44 projects with a total supply area of 2.0246 million square meters and 18,150 units, indicating a significant decrease in supply for Q3 2025 [2] - The residential supply area in Q3 2024 was 1.4912 million square meters with 14,955 units, showing a decline in both metrics in 2025 [2] - The downward trend in supply began earlier in 2025, with a notable reduction in the first half of the year [2] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the number of new residential units supplied was 13,877, down 28.6% year-on-year, with a supply area of 1.398 million square meters, reflecting a five-year low [2] - The average transaction price for new residential properties has decreased, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year, indicating price stabilization [3] - The reduction in interest rates, with a 45 basis point drop in both 1-year and 5-year LPR, has led to increased promotional efforts by developers, making home purchases more affordable [3] Future Outlook - The current market conditions present a favorable window for potential homebuyers due to policy easing and lower costs [3] - There is an expectation for further policy measures to stimulate market demand, alongside improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions [3]