外贸油运

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中远海能(600026):25Q1归母净利同比-43%/环比+14%至7.1亿 外贸成品油&期租毛利提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-01 02:26
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with specific segments showing mixed performance, indicating challenges in the oil transportation sector [1] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 5.75 billion, down 4.0% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million, a decrease of 43.3% year-on-year but an increase of 13.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring net profit was also 710 million, down 42.7% year-on-year and up 12.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] Segment Analysis - LNG Transportation: Q1 revenue was 620 million, up 10.6% year-on-year but down 1% quarter-on-quarter; gross margin was 49.4%, up 3.6% year-on-year and 6.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Domestic Oil Transportation: Q1 revenue was 1.39 billion, down 4.7% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter; gross margin was 24%, down 1.2% year-on-year but up 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Foreign Oil Transportation: Q1 revenue was 3.58 billion, down 6% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter; gross margin was 15.0%, down 16.9% year-on-year but up 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Trends - The Q1 product tanker index rebounded, with expectations for stronger mid-sized crude carriers in Q2 due to seasonal price increases driven by OPEC+ production and sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil [2] - VLCC rates showed a seasonal decline after an initial spike, with TCE indices for various tanker types reflecting significant year-on-year decreases [2] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about VLCC supply constraints and a return to demand in the regulated market, despite potential macroeconomic challenges [3] - Even under pessimistic scenarios, oil transportation demand is expected to remain resilient due to low global oil inventories and stable non-OPEC production [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a positive mid-term outlook for VLCC, projecting net profits of 5.29 billion, 6.33 billion, and 7.08 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [4] - The current price suggests a dividend yield of approximately 5.3% for A shares and 9.9% for H shares in 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating [4]