Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The price of germanium has surged significantly in the second half of 2024, driven by a substantial increase in supply from regions rich in germanium resources such as Guangxi and Inner Mongolia. The total germanium production from major domestic companies is estimated to be around 183 tons, with an increase of approximately 37 tons, accounting for 20% of the total production [1][13] - The demand for germanium is expected to be greatly boosted by the advancement of commercial satellite projects, with projections indicating that by 2030, the demand for germanium from commercial satellites could reach about 70 tons, representing a 38% increase compared to the current demand [15] - The long-term price center for germanium is anticipated to rise above 10,000 yuan per kilogram, supported by the high production costs in the Inner Mongolia region, which is a significant source of supply [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Germanium Price Trends - In the second half of 2024, germanium prices soared to a peak of 18,850 yuan per kilogram, before retreating to around 15,000 yuan per kilogram in early 2025 due to increased supply and export restrictions [12][13] 2. Supply Sources - Inner Mongolia's Xilin Gol League is a crucial source of new germanium supply, with proven reserves of 3,458 tons, accounting for 68% of China's total germanium reserves and 38% of the world's reserves. The Ulan Tuogai open-pit mine in this region is currently the largest germanium mine in China [2][19] 3. Production Costs - The complete production cost of germanium in Inner Mongolia is estimated to be over 10,000 yuan per kilogram, which may serve as a future price equilibrium point [20] 4. Demand Projections - The G60 and GW satellite constellation plans are projected to significantly increase germanium demand, with annual increments expected to reach 2,600 tons by 2030 [18] 5. Market Overview - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has shown fluctuations, with the Shenyin Wanguo Metal New Materials Index reporting a decrease of 0.89% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 23.19% [22][24]