Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index has decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, reflecting significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals have experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, influenced by inflation fears and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market shows strong upward momentum, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 15.08% from March 9 to March 20, 2026, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper prices were $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged ¥95,470 per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report suggests that copper prices may seek a weak balance between macroeconomic pressures and cost support [30]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to ¥1,023,000 per ton, up 11.44% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the demand for high-end gallium products continues to rise, contributing to a 5.19% price increase for gallium [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index fell to 255.31, down 13.58% over two weeks, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices decreased by 17.35% [45]. - The report indicates that the rare earth sector is facing significant valuation pressure due to slowing demand growth [45]. Energy Metals - As of March 20, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was ¥431,000 per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices averaged ¥149,000 per ton, down 4.03% [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector's growth [54]. Major Events - The report discusses the tightening of gold trading policies by several banks in response to market volatility, which may impact trading dynamics in the precious metals market [69]. - It also notes the recent government policies aimed at resource security and green transformation, which are expected to support the non-ferrous metals industry [70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing opportunities driven by supply rigidity and demand resilience [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.29% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - Key price movements include significant increases in aluminum (10.87%), tungsten (30.58%), and molybdenum (7.48%), while industrial metals like copper and energy metals saw declines [2][17][28][43]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are impacting supply chains and prices, with a focus on the implications for various metals [4][19][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 0.29% from February 23 to March 6, 2026, with small metals (5.45%), precious metals (4.29%), and new metal materials (0.39%) increasing, while industrial metals (-1.37%) and energy metals (-2.90%) decreased [1][11]. Precious Metals - As of March 6, COMEX gold closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, up 1.00% over two weeks, and year-to-date up 19.60% [2][18]. - COMEX silver closed at $84.70 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% over two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [2][18]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,808.00 per ton, up 0.45% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 2.43% [2][28]. - Aluminum prices surged due to supply disruptions, with LME aluminum at $3,385.00 per ton, reflecting a 10.87% increase over two weeks [2][32]. Small Metals - Molybdenum prices rose to 4,455 yuan per ton, up 7.48% over two weeks, driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical tensions [2][37]. - Tungsten prices reached 918,000 yuan per ton, up 30.58% over two weeks, influenced by domestic policy and supply constraints [2][43]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 295.42, up 1.80% over two weeks, with significant increases in prices for lanthanum and cerium oxides [2][53][54]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,500 yuan per ton, up 1.17% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 8.95% to 155,250 yuan per ton [2][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing opportunities driven by supply rigidity and demand resilience [4]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.29% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 sectors [1][11]. - Key price movements include significant increases in aluminum (10.87%), tungsten (30.58%), and molybdenum (7.48%), while industrial metals like copper and energy metals saw declines [2][17][28][43]. - Geopolitical tensions have disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting aluminum and tungsten prices, while demand from the military sector is expected to rise due to ongoing conflicts [4][38][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (2026.2.23-2026.3.6) - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 0.29%, with small metals (5.45%), precious metals (4.29%), and new metal materials (0.39%) increasing, while industrial metals (-1.37%) and energy metals (-2.90%) decreased [1][11]. 2. Precious Metals - As of March 6, COMEX gold closed at $5,181.30 per ounce, up 1.00% over two weeks, and year-to-date up 19.60% [18]. - COMEX silver closed at $84.70 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% over two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [18][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold due to the ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20]. 3. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,808.00 per ton, up 0.45% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 2.43% [28]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on copper prices and suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [28]. 4. Small Metals - Molybdenum prices increased to 4,455 yuan per ton, up 7.48% over two weeks, driven by supply disruptions and increased military demand [37][38]. - Tungsten prices surged to 918,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 30.58% increase over two weeks due to supply constraints and rising demand from the solar energy sector [43][44]. 5. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index reached 295.42, up 1.80% over two weeks, with significant increases in lanthanum and cerium prices [53][54]. - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to the tightening supply and increasing demand [54]. 6. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,500 yuan per ton, up 1.17% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices rose to 155,250 yuan per ton, reflecting an 8.95% increase [58][59]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in lithium and cobalt production due to their strong market performance [58].

Summary of Strategic Minerals Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on strategic minerals including tungsten, antimony, uranium, and germanium, highlighting their resource attributes and price trends expected to rise steadily [1][2]. Key Points on Tungsten - **Price Surge**: Tungsten prices increased by 5.5 times to 919,000 CNY/ton over 8 months, driven by a 6% supply reduction in 2025 and a $500 million strategic reserve plan from the U.S. [1][3]. - **Demand Drivers**: Key demand contributors include photovoltaic tungsten wire and military applications, with military demand accounting for approximately 20% of total demand and growing at double-digit rates [3][4]. - **Supply Constraints**: Domestic tungsten supply is projected at 107,000 tons for 2025, down from 114,000 tons in 2024, marking a significant trend change not seen in over a decade [3][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is relatively small, with a total size nearing 200 billion CNY, and is sensitive to funding, which can create price elasticity [4]. Key Points on Antimony - **Current Pricing**: Antimony ingot prices are at 172,000 CNY/ton, down from a peak of 240,000 CNY/ton in June 2025 [5]. - **Export Controls Impact**: Export controls have led to a significant drop in antimony oxide exports, with current levels at about 1/10 of historical averages [5]. - **Future Catalysts**: Anticipated catalysts include the completion of export approval processes and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector in Q1 2026 [5]. Key Points on Germanium - **Market Size and Pricing**: Germanium prices are currently at 12.7 million CNY/ton, with annual demand around 220 tons, leading to a market size of approximately 3 billion CNY [6]. - **Supply Dependency**: About 70% of global germanium production comes from China, making it a critical resource for U.S. strategic reserves, with the U.S. planning to procure over 20% of its annual demand [6]. Key Points on Uranium - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The uranium market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%-5% over the next decade, with supply recovery nearing completion [7][8]. - **Price Structure**: Current long-term contract prices are at $90 per pound, reflecting true supply-demand dynamics, while spot prices are more volatile [8]. - **Future Catalysts**: The easing of financing costs due to interest rate cuts is expected to boost uranium purchases, with significant procurement planned by North American buyers [8]. Strategic Implications - The current market dynamics are influenced by de-globalization and resource nationalism, with a shift from traditional commodity cycles to a focus on supply chain restructuring [2]. - Companies to watch include Xiamen Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Chihong Zn & Ge, and China General Nuclear Power for potential investment opportunities [1][4][5][6][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that external disturbances lead to internal stability, and the overall market will continue to experience fluctuations, with a strengthened performance in mid-cap blue-chip stocks and a focus on resource sovereignty [7][10]. - The assessment of the domestic market's impact is manageable, and the oscillating situation remains unchanged, as the recent Middle Eastern events serve as a short-term stress test without altering the mid-term market dynamics [11][12]. - Global risk evaluation is on the rise, reinforcing existing trends, while short-term risk appetite is expected to decline but will likely recover in the mid-term as uncertainties resolve [11][12]. Group 2 - In terms of industry comparison, the short-term events are believed to have a limited negative impact on previously favored sectors, instead reinforcing existing trends, with continued optimism for cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, transportation, agriculture, coal, and natural gas [12]. - The theme of investment prioritizes resource sovereignty, emphasizing that strategic resource assets are being re-evaluated under the new geopolitical order, shifting demand from traditional economic cycles to "manufacturing upgrades" and "strategic security" [3][12]. - The technology manufacturing sector is closely following developments in AI and space, with a focus on domestic computing power advancements and the emerging space industry, which is expected to see significant growth due to increased satellite networking demands [4][13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals in modern industry, highlighting their role in various sectors such as new energy vehicles, aerospace, and semiconductor manufacturing, and outlines the complete value chain of these metals in supporting China's manufacturing upgrades and technological advancements [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition and Value of Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals are defined as all metals excluding iron, manganese, and chromium, categorized into five main types based on their industrial applications and properties [5]. - The article proposes a redefinition of these metals using industry labels to better reflect their core value and relevance in modern manufacturing [4]. 2. Types of Non-Ferrous Metals - **Light Metals**: Includes aluminum and magnesium, crucial for lightweight applications in manufacturing, with aluminum projected to reach over 40 million tons in China by 2025, accounting for over 60% of global production [7]. - **Heavy Metals**: Comprises copper, nickel, and cobalt, essential for electrical applications and the backbone of the economy, with copper demand in the new energy sector expected to exceed 25% by 2025 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Includes gold and silver, recognized as hard currencies and vital for high-end manufacturing, with central banks expected to increase gold reserves by over 1,200 tons in 2025 [9]. - **Rare Metals**: This category includes lithium and rare earth elements, which are critical for high-end manufacturing and military applications, with China holding nearly 50% of global rare earth reserves [10][12]. - **Metalloids**: Such as silicon, which is foundational for the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries, with over 95% of semiconductor chips based on silicon [13]. 3. Role in New Energy and Semiconductor Industries - Non-ferrous metals are identified as essential for the new energy revolution, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel being key materials for batteries, and demand for lithium expected to grow by 25% by 2025 due to the surge in electric vehicle sales [17][19]. - In the semiconductor sector, metals like gallium and germanium are crucial for chip manufacturing, with China controlling over 90% of global gallium and germanium production [27]. 4. Strategic Importance in Aerospace and Military - Non-ferrous metals define the performance limits of aerospace and military equipment, with titanium alloys being essential for aircraft and high-temperature alloys being critical for jet engines [29][30]. - Rare earth elements are vital for military applications, with China dominating the supply of these materials [30]. 5. Economic and Financial Security - Non-ferrous metals are fundamental to national economic stability, with copper being a key material in the electrical system, and gold serving as a hedge against geopolitical risks [34][32]. - The article highlights the importance of uranium and thorium for nuclear energy, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals [34]. 6. Global Competitive Landscape - China holds significant advantages in the non-ferrous metals sector, including leading positions in rare earths and critical materials for semiconductors, but faces challenges in high-end processing technologies and resource dependencies [36][44]. - The article identifies both strengths, such as the complete supply chain for rare earths, and weaknesses, including high import dependencies for certain critical metals like platinum and cobalt [37][44].

Group 1 - The A-share small metal sector experienced a significant surge, with 14 stocks including Zhangyuan Tungsten and Tin Industry Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit, and Shanghai tin futures rising by 7% [1] - The driving factors behind this market trend include the U.S. Department of Defense's plan to use an AI model to set reference prices for critical minerals such as germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, amid supply shortages faced by aerospace and semiconductor suppliers [1][2] - The U.S. government aims to establish a "reliable investment framework" through the AI pricing model, as it cannot provide price support for individual companies due to a lack of congressional funding [1][2] Group 2 - The OPEN project, initiated by the Pentagon's DARPA in 2023, seeks to calculate reasonable prices for key metals by considering labor, processing, and other costs, indicating a desire for more direct government intervention in market pricing [2] - The AI pricing model will initially focus on at least four critical minerals, with plans to expand to others, supported by data and technology from S&P Global and Finnish data company Rovjok [2] - The U.S. aerospace and semiconductor supply chains are facing rare earth shortages, with yttrium and scandium supply tightening, leading some North American companies to halt production [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - International gold prices have exceeded previous optimistic forecasts, with predictions for 2026 ranging from $4,800 to $5,500 per ounce, but prices have already surpassed this range early in the year [1] - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of gold in London has increased by over 90%, while silver has surged by more than 200% [1] - The demand for precious metals is driven by factors such as weakening dollar credit, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing price increases supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals, with a projected annual growth rate of 1.5% for ten types of non-ferrous metals in China, which is below the expected consumption growth of 2.2% [3] - The price of copper has reached historical highs, leading to increased costs in the semiconductor manufacturing process, with futures prices for gold, silver, and copper expected to rise by over 50% by 2025 [3] - The chemical sector is also seeing price increases, particularly in dye products, where leading companies are able to raise prices due to supply constraints [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - International oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand rebalancing, with VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) daily rental rates reaching $15.7 million as of February 20, 2026, and further increasing to over $20 million shortly after [2][4] - The surge in oil tanker rental rates reflects a heightened perception of risk in the market, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the need for additional compensation for shipping [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The chemical sector is expected to become the new leading area for price increases, with low inventory levels and tightening supply constraints, while the market awaits demand signals [4] - The precious metals market is anticipated to experience strong fluctuations but maintain an upward trend in the medium term, supported by geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties [5] - The price increase logic is spreading from metals and semiconductors to broader sectors such as oil, construction materials, chemicals, and food and beverage industries, with AI and semiconductor sectors continuing to benefit [5]

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with significant price increases and a notable divergence in price trends among different metals, driven by supply constraints and structural demand surges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The small metals sector has achieved a cumulative increase of nearly 50% year-to-date, leading all 124 secondary industries [3]. - Key stocks such as Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten have seen their prices double, with year-to-date increases of 187.41% and 186.32% respectively [3]. - The tungsten price has reached historical highs, with a projected increase of over 217% by 2025 [4]. Group 2: Price Divergence - Tungsten has emerged as the leading metal in this market rally, while magnesium prices have remained low, indicating a significant price divergence among small metals [4][6]. - Tantalum prices have surged by 78.57% over three months, reaching an average of 5000 yuan/kg [5]. - Antimony prices have also increased, with a recent average of 170,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a continuous upward trend since the end of the Spring Festival [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are a major factor supporting the high tungsten prices, with predictions of increasing global supply-demand gaps from 2026 to 2028 [4]. - The demand for key minerals is being driven by concerns over supply chain security, making these resources increasingly valuable [3]. - Despite the overall demand for metals, certain sectors like real estate and home appliances are facing weakening demand, while investments in power grids and energy storage are expected to remain strong [6]. Group 4: Cost Transmission and Corporate Responses - Rising raw material costs have led to several companies issuing price increase notices, indicating a shift in the cost transmission mechanism within the industry [7][8]. - Companies like Tiangong International and Xiangyuan Tungsten have announced price adjustments for their products due to increased production costs [7][8]. - Firms with resource advantages are expected to report strong earnings, while those in processing may face margin compression [8][9].

Group 1 - The small metals sector in A-shares continues to rise, with key subcategories such as tungsten, germanium, rare earths, and indium showing strong performance, as all 95 stocks in the sector increased in value [1] - The U.S. White House plans to use an AI model developed by the Department of Defense to establish reference prices for global critical mineral trade, initially covering germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, signaling a potential restructuring of the global pricing system for critical minerals [1] - Supply constraints are a core driver of the recent strength in small metals, with major producing countries tightening resource controls, leading to a noticeable slowdown in the supply growth of tungsten, antimony, germanium, and gallium [1] Group 2 - The supply of tungsten remains tight, with black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a historical high of 777,500 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from the previous trading day, while indium and germanium also face limited supply due to concentrated global production [2] - The demand for small metals is experiencing rigid growth, driven by emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and photovoltaic wind power, which further opens up upward price potential for small metals [2] - Multiple institutions have identified small metals as a key allocation direction for 2026, citing their cyclical elasticity and growth attributes, with strong profitability certainty amid economic recovery and industrial upgrades [2] Group 3 - According to Western Securities, the small metals sector is expected to encounter new opportunities by 2026 due to the rising demand from the AI industry, with strong resonance from supply-side policy constraints and demand-side recovery [3]