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纺织服装海外趋势跟踪(2025年7月):6月制造龙头收入增速边际改善,NIKE老库消化、经销商拓展良好
CMS· 2025-07-13 11:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, including Jingyuan International, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4][34]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in revenue growth for leading manufacturers, with a positive outlook for NIKE as inventory and channel conditions improve, suggesting a potential for sequential sales growth [1][3]. - The U.S. retail market has shown signs of recovery, with a positive growth trend in terminal retail sales and stable inventory levels, while Southeast Asian textile exports remain robust [2][11]. - New product launches from major international brands in sports fashion and outdoor segments are expected to increase, with a focus on market feedback for these new offerings [15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Prosperity Analysis - Demand Side: U.S. terminal retail sales have shown recovery in Q2 2025, with healthy inventory levels. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 16% year-on-year in June 2025, while footwear exports decreased by 3% [2][13]. - Industry Trends: Major international brands are gradually launching new products in July, with an emphasis on monitoring market responses [15]. Supply Chain Tracking - Brand Side: NIKE's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, down 12% year-on-year, but inventory clearance and channel expansion are progressing well, with expectations for sequential improvement in sales [3][17]. - Manufacturing Side: Revenue growth for leading manufacturers showed marginal improvement in June, with specific companies reporting varied performance, such as Yuyuan's manufacturing business up by 9.4% and Yuchi's outdoor footwear revenue up by 23% [24][29]. Investment Recommendations - Jingyuan International is recommended for its diverse product range and operational efficiency, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE of 8.5X for 2025 [4][34]. - Shenzhou International is highlighted for its recovery in capacity utilization and production efficiency, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X for 2025 [4][34]. - Huali Group is noted for its optimized customer structure and ongoing capacity expansion, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 15X for 2025 [4][34].