Due to continuing property price declines in China, investors are concerned about potential defaults on mortgages and MSE/business operating loans using property as collateral. We gauge the risk by analysing: 1) foreclosed property: 2.1m units or 1.8% of total properties with mortgages or MSE/business operating loans; 2) negative cash flow: 1.2%/4.8% of borrowers may have insufficient monthly income to cover mortgages/all loans; 3) negative equity: 0.7m units by 2025E to 3.3m units by 2027E with the loan lo ...