Due to continuing property price declines in China, investors are concerned about potential defaults on mortgages and MSE/business operating loans using property as collateral. We gauge the risk by analysing: 1) foreclosed property: 2.1m units or 1.8% of total properties with mortgages or MSE/business operating loans; 2) negative cash flow: 1.2%/4.8% of borrowers may have insufficient monthly income to cover mortgages/all loans; 3) negative equity: 0.7m units by 2025E to 3.3m units by 2027E with the loan lo ...

美国次级信贷借款人的汽车贷款违约率升至历史新高，低收入群体面临的财务压力正在加剧。 根据惠誉评级的数据，截至10月，美国逾期60天以上的"次级借款人"占比升至6.65%，创下1994年有记 录以来的最高水平。持续的通胀压力和学生贷款还款的恢复，正迫使数百万购车者难以支付月供。 "次级借款人"指信用资质较差的借款人。这类借款人被认为违约风险较高，因此金融机构在向他们发放 贷款时，如汽车贷款、住房抵押贷款等，往往会收取更高的利率，或者设置更严格的条款。 这些消费者财务状况恶化的迹象在9月变得尤为明显，华尔街见闻此前提及，当时二手车经销商兼次级 汽车贷款放贷机构Tricolor突然宣布破产，迫使那些对次级借款人有风险敞口的大型金融机构不得不重 新评估相关风险。 次级借款人规模扩大 根据Edmunds.com的数据，第三季度，在以旧换新购买新车的交易中，超过28%的新车置换交易存在负 资产（即贷款余额高于车辆当前价值），为2021年第一季度以来最高水平。 第三季度，这类次级借款人占所有被追踪消费者的14.4%，高于去年同期的13.9%。 对许多借款人而言，找到稳定工作正变得更加困难。 9月的经济指标显示招聘放缓、用工 ...

Group 1 - The number of negative equity cases in Hong Kong decreased to 37,806 in Q2 2025, down 7.2% from the previous quarter, with the total amount involved at HKD 190.16 billion, a decrease of 7.6% [1] - The property market showed signs of recovery following the announcement of stamp duty adjustments in February, with the private residential price index rising for three consecutive months [1] - The number of new mortgage insurance applications in the first half of the year was 3,483, a decrease of 37.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in nearly nine years [1] Group 2 - The delinquency rate for mortgages overdue by more than three months remains low at 0.21%, indicating that most homeowners maintain a stable repayment ability [1] - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q4 may lead to a decrease in Hong Kong's interbank rates, which could stimulate further economic recovery and boost the property market [2] - If the property market continues to stabilize in the second half of the year, there is potential for further reduction in negative equity cases [3]