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一场路演的启发,再看量化小微盘的前世今生
雪球· 2025-07-06 07:50
Core Viewpoint - The article presents a unique perspective on small-cap stocks, arguing that their valuation, as measured by price-to-book ratio, remains reasonable despite market fears of a collapse in this segment [3][6]. Group 1: Valuation Insights - The price-to-book ratio for small-cap stocks has decreased significantly from over 4 times in 2016 to 2.23 currently, indicating a drop of more than 50% [3]. - The price-to-book ratio has stabilized around 2 since 2019, with fluctuations between a high of 2.5 in December 2023 and a low of 1.3 in February 2024 [3]. - The use of price-to-book ratio is preferred over price-to-earnings ratio due to the volatility in earnings of small-cap companies, which often leads to distorted valuations [4]. Group 2: Market Perception and Opportunities - Many investors dismiss small-cap stocks as "junk" due to high price-to-earnings ratios, but these companies may have significant upside potential if their earnings improve [5]. - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the small-cap space, where larger companies have invested billions, suggest that these stocks possess inherent value that is not immediately reflected in their financial statements [5]. - The article emphasizes that the current valuation of small-cap stocks is still within a reasonable range, contrary to mainstream market beliefs [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - In 2023, small-cap stocks experienced a remarkable increase, with the Wind Micro Cap Index rising by 47.57%, while major indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 300 fell [7]. - The beginning of 2024 saw a significant downturn for small-cap stocks, with the Wind Micro Cap Index dropping by 34.90% in just two weeks due to liquidity crises triggered by automatic redemption options [8]. - By September 2024, small-cap stocks rebounded significantly, with the trading volume and volatility increasing, leading to a recovery of previous losses and reaching historical net asset value highs [10]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook - The introduction of new regulations in April 2024 aimed at tightening delisting supervision has raised concerns about small-cap stocks, which are often seen as high-risk for delisting [9]. - The new restructuring regulations introduced in May 2025 simplified the merger and acquisition processes, providing a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [11]. - Overall, the small-cap private equity sector has shown significant resilience and potential for high returns, with some products yielding 60% to 70% returns since their inception [12].