Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a return to fundamentals in the real estate industry, suggesting a shift from scale-driven growth to a focus on sustainable development and quality [1] - The report predicts a decline in total sales area for 2026, estimating it at 850 million square meters, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year, with a notable drop in pre-sale housing sales [3][19] - The total inventory of commercial housing is projected to decrease from a peak of 4.25 billion square meters in 2021 to 2.77 billion square meters by September 2025, indicating a significant reduction in market supply [13] Group 2 - New construction area for 2026 is estimated at 600 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, supported by improved land acquisition in core cities [28][30] - The report anticipates a completion area of 540 million square meters in 2026, down 13.2% from the previous year, primarily due to the ongoing impact of reduced construction starts in prior years [36][38] - The total construction area is expected to reach 6.11 billion square meters by the end of 2026, representing an 8% decline, with a significant reduction in the proportion of halted projects [45][46] Group 3 - Real estate development investment is projected to total 7.8 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with construction-related investments expected to decline by 10.7% [57][58] - The report highlights that the decline in construction area will significantly impact the growth rate of construction investments, while the easing of material prices is expected to mitigate some of the downward pressure [53][58] - The investment in land acquisition is anticipated to support the overall investment figures, as the decline in land purchase amounts is expected to narrow, providing a buffer for other investment categories [56][58]