| 黄细里 | Ekste | | --- | --- | | 刘力宇 | | | 煮路 | | | 郭雨蒙 | | | 孙仁昊 | De se o | | 赖闊旭 | יות משפחים | | | | | 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025Q1业绩。2025Q1公司实现营收400.19亿元，同环比-6.6%/-33.2%，实现归母净利 润17.51亿元，同环比-45.7%/-22.7%，归母净利润同比下降主要系：1）产品周期波动导致季度 销量下降；2）销售费用同比增长；3）俄罗斯报废税返还因新车认证后延所致。盈利能力方 面，公司Q1毛利率为17.84%，同环比分别-2.2/+1.3pct，受俄罗斯报废税后延约影响。费用率方 面，Q1公司销售费用为22.96亿元，同环比分别+34.6%/+44.6%，主要系：1）直营体系加速投 入的影响；2）新车型上市和预热的影响，如高山、坦克300、二代枭龙max等。 魏品牌放量，出海持续推进： 销量结构上，长城汽车Q1批发销量25.68万辆，同环比分别-6.7%/-32.3%。分品牌来看，哈弗/ 魏 牌 / 坦 克 / 欧 拉 / 皮 卡 销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors is facing short-term pressure on performance due to product cycle fluctuations, despite ongoing globalization efforts [1] - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 40.019 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% quarter-on-quarter and 33.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.751 billion yuan, down 45.7% quarter-on-quarter and 22.7% year-on-year [1] - The report notes that the decline in net profit is primarily due to product cycle fluctuations leading to decreased quarterly sales, increased sales expenses, and delays in new car certifications affecting tax refunds in Russia [1] - Great Wall Motors' Q1 gross margin was 17.84%, with sales expenses rising to 2.296 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase due to accelerated investments in direct sales and new model launches [1] - The report emphasizes the growth of the Wey brand and ongoing international expansion, with total wholesale sales of 256,800 units in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7% [1] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various brands [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 219.515 billion yuan, 237.623 billion yuan, and 253.828 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.57%, 8.25%, and 6.82% [1] - Net profit forecasts for the same years have been revised to 12.270 billion yuan, 13.854 billion yuan, and 14.366 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 3.33% in 2025, followed by increases in subsequent years [1] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 173.212 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.12% [1] - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.43 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.44 [1] - The report indicates that the company’s sales and R&D investments are increasing, which has led to a downward adjustment in profit expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to product cycle fluctuations, despite ongoing globalization efforts [1] - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 40.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% quarter-on-quarter and 33.2% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.751 billion yuan, down 45.7% quarter-on-quarter and 22.7% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix [1] - The forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards for both revenue and net profit due to increased competition in the industry [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 219.515 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 12.270 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.43 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.44 [1]