师范教育
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小学和幼儿园老师2年减少45万
第一财经· 2026-01-13 12:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of changing birth rates on the education sector in China, highlighting a peak in student enrollment across various educational stages and the resulting implications for teacher supply and higher education institutions [3]. Group 1: Population and Enrollment Trends - The number of primary school students in China peaked in 2023, with junior high school expected to peak in 2026 and high school in 2029. Higher education enrollment is projected to peak in 2032 [3]. - The changing demographics are leading to a reduction in the number of teachers, particularly in kindergartens and primary schools, with a total decrease of 45.16 million teachers in these stages over two years [4]. Group 2: Impact on Teacher Training Institutions - Teacher training institutions are experiencing significant changes, with many local normal universities merging or rebranding to enhance their competitiveness. They are also diversifying their programs, with nearly 25% of normal universities adding three or more engineering majors in the past three years [5]. - New engineering programs, particularly in artificial intelligence and other technology-related fields, are being introduced to align with market demands and societal trends [5]. Group 3: Challenges for Higher Education Institutions - Some higher education institutions are already facing enrollment shortages, with ordinary undergraduate schools struggling to fill spots, leading to lower admission standards [6]. - The overall population eligible for higher education is expected to peak in 2032, after which a significant decline is anticipated, potentially reducing the student base by over 41% compared to the peak in 2016 [6][7]. - Experts predict that the decline in student numbers will pose substantial challenges for many higher education institutions, particularly those with high tuition fees and low employment outcomes [7][8].