另外，该行根据渠道调查指出，第四季广告市场或会转弱，且微博关键广告领域的广告开支亦较弱。因 此，该行对微博第四季前景持谨慎态度，并将期内收入预测由按年跌2%进一步降至按年跌5%，经调整 净利润预测下调至9600万美元。 美银证券发表研究报告，预计微博第三季广告收入将会受压，因为线上游戏和手机广告商开支持续疲 弱，而且快速消费品广告商亦因去年的高基数而出现开支疲软。该行将微博第三季的总收入预测由按年 跌4%进一步下调至跌6%，并将经调整净利润预测降至1.06亿美元。由于盈测下调，目标价亦相应由9美 元降至8.7美元，重申"跑输大市"评级。 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a 1% year-over-year increase in topline and core ad revenue for Q1 2025, primarily driven by a significant 89% year-over-year surge in Alibaba ad spending related to CNY festival promotions and AI product marketing [1][5] - The adjusted net profit margin (NPM) reached 30.1%, exceeding consensus expectations of 24.0% [1][5] - The company is focusing on accelerating AI investments and integrations within its social ecosystem to enhance ad monetization opportunities [1][3] Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was US$397 million, which was flat year-over-year but 1% above consensus estimates [5] - Core online ad revenue remained flat year-over-year, while non-Alibaba ad revenue declined by 6% year-over-year, impacted by the online game and handset sectors [5] - Alibaba ad revenue's substantial growth was attributed to strong promotional demand, particularly from the Spring Festival Gala and AI-related products [5] Strategic Focus - The company aims to explore AI integrations across various scenarios, including search, social interaction, content ecosystems, and commercial advertising, to strengthen existing products and drive user engagement [2][3] - The forecast for FY2025 ad revenue has been raised by 2% due to increased spending on Alibaba ads [3][4] Financial Forecast - The adjusted earnings per share (EPADS) forecast for FY2025 has been raised, reflecting the company's disciplined approach to selling, general, and administrative expenses despite increased AI-related investments [4]