Core Viewpoint - The recent high land prices in Chengdu, particularly the record-breaking floor price of 31,700 yuan per square meter for the Danyuan West plot, indicate a bullish sentiment in the real estate market despite the overall economic uncertainty [1][2][3]. Group 1: Chengdu Land Prices - Chengdu's recent land auctions saw three plots sold at high premiums, with the Danyuan West plot achieving a floor price of 31,700 yuan per square meter, surpassing previous records [1][2]. - The Danyuan West plot's winning bid by China Merchants Shekou at a 70.4% premium reflects a significant risk appetite among developers [2][3]. - The previous record was held by Beike, which sold a plot for 27,300 yuan per square meter in September 2023 [1]. Group 2: Market Resilience - Chengdu's real estate market has shown resilience, maintaining the highest transaction volume in new homes in China, with 111,000 units sold in 2024, despite a 24.5% year-on-year decline [6][7]. - The second-hand housing market in Chengdu also led the nation with 231,000 units sold, marking a 5.2% increase year-on-year [8][9]. - The overall transaction area for both new and second-hand homes in Chengdu ranked first nationally, indicating strong market activity [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China Merchants Shekou reported a slight increase in revenue to 178.95 billion yuan in 2024, but profits fell sharply by 35.02% to 9.09 billion yuan, raising questions about the sustainability of high land prices [3][5]. - The overall economic and employment situation remains uncertain, which may hinder a strong rebound in housing prices [28][29]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Inventory - Chengdu's total housing inventory is approximately 270,000 units, with second-hand listings exceeding new homes by 1.6 times, indicating a saturated market [27]. - The market is expected to experience significant differentiation, with core areas showing better performance compared to peripheral regions [30][31]. - The absorption rate in core districts is much faster, with some areas like Wuhou and Jinjiang having a turnover period of just over two months, while outer districts face longer turnover periods exceeding 24 months [37][39].