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房地产行业报告(2025.09.15-2025.09.21):行业下行压力延续,转型概念关注度提升
China Post Securities· 2025-09-23 03:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently in an adjustment cycle, with core indicators such as sales and investment under pressure. However, there is increasing market differentiation, with core cities, quality real estate companies, and property sectors showing relative resilience. The expectation of policy easing has led to structural opportunities worth noting. Additionally, several state-owned A-share real estate companies are gaining market attention due to mergers and restructuring, contributing to a recent rise in the overall A-share real estate index. Amid ongoing industry pressures, certain real estate REITs have seen significant gains this year, becoming a focus for risk-averse capital due to their stable cash flows and quality underlying assets [4][5]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking New Housing Transactions and Inventory - Last week, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 151.48 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 6,397.58 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 152.32 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.6%. Specifically, first-tier cities had an average transaction area of 46.32 million square meters, up 11.5% year-on-year and 6.2% month-on-month [5][13]. - The available inventory of commodity residential properties in 14 cities was 80,537.7 million square meters, down 9.59% year-on-year, with a turnover cycle of 17.99 months [15]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions and Listings - In the past week, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 20 cities was 211.36 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date transaction area of 8,191.56 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16%. The average transaction area over the past four weeks was 201.4 million square meters, up 21.5% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [6][18]. Land Market Transactions - Last week, 51 new residential land plots were supplied in 100 major cities, with 50 plots successfully transacted. The average floor price for residential land transactions was 4,959.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.04%, down 0.23 percentage points month-on-month [27]. Market Review - Last week, the A-share real estate index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.44%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 1.16 percentage points. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Property Services and Management Index fell by 1.68%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 0.43%, indicating a relative underperformance of 2.1 percentage points for the property services and management index [31][32].