证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-09-23 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2348.72 | | 52 周最高 | 2656.47 | | 52 周最低 | 1778.76 | 行业相对指数表现 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《有实力转型多元化的房企有望获得 超额收益》 - 2025.09.15 房地产行业报告 （2025.09.15-2025.09.21） 行业下行压力延续 转型概念关注度提升 ⚫ 投资要点 从基本面来看，当前房地产行业整体仍处调整周期，销售、投资 等核心指标延续承压态势，但市场分化加剧，核心城市、优质房企及 物业板块展现相对韧性，政策宽松预期增强下，结构性机会值得关注。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - The alumina market shows a low - level oscillation in the main contract, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,745 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 19 yuan. The main contract position is 236,067 lots, down 9,800 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,676 US dollars/ton, down 29 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,934 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 15 yuan, down 4 yuan. The main contract position is 317,523 lots, up 11,106 lots [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,340 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - to - second - contract spread is - 60 yuan, down 45 yuan. The main contract position is 10,767 lots, up 351 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,950 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of alumina is 6 yuan, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 610 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the utilization rate of production capacity is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand from the electrolytic aluminum part is 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production is 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons. The export volume is 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 53.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The national housing prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.64%, down 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.13%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.05%, up 0.0031 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, which may affect the global capital re - balance, and non - US equity markets are more favored [2]. - Sino - US relations are expected to be improved through communication [2]. - The real estate industry is entering a transformation period from "quantity" to "quality" [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The main contract of alumina oscillates at a low level, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The supply is sufficient with a slight increase, while demand growth is less than supply growth. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Aluminum View Summary - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rises first and then falls, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy opens low and rebounds slightly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of cast aluminum is reduced, and demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak. Light - position short - term long trading on dips is recommended [2]

中经记者 陈婷 赵毅 深圳报道 9月15日晚间，招商蛇口（001979.SZ）公告公司董事长蒋铁峰由于工作调动原因辞去董事、董事长等职 务。董事会选举朱文凯担任公司第四届董事会董事长。基于工作岗位调整，董事会同意免去朱文凯的总 经理职务，同时聘任聂黎明为公司总经理。 至此，招商蛇口"一二把手"同时换防，迎来新的权力组合。 9月16日，有接近招商蛇口的内部人士对《中国经营报》记者表示，此次变动属于正常的工作调整，朱 文凯与聂黎明都是招商系"老兵"，他们出任也属于平稳"交棒"。 招商系"老兵" 记者注意到，关于蒋铁峰的新去向，招商蛇口并未在公告中透露。但就在9月初，招商局集团官网显 示，蒋铁峰现任招商局集团副总经理。 公告显示，朱文凯出生于1967年，今年58岁，毕业于武汉理工大学交通运输管理工程专业，获硕士学 位。 公告显示，蒋铁峰历任招商地产南京公司总经理助理、副总经理、总经理；招商蛇口上海公司总经理、 华东区域常务副总经理、华东区域总经理、江南区域总经理；招商蛇口副总经理、总经理。 蒋铁峰担任招商蛇口董事长期间，招商蛇口在2023年以销售额约2936亿元跻身行业前五。2024年，招商 蛇口销售额排名保持行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with many companies facing increased profit pressure, while a few, like Longfor and China Resources, are successfully navigating this shift by focusing on operational business models and achieving positive profitability [2][9]. Industry Trends - The market is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing assets, as indicated by recent government meetings [2]. - Companies are exploring new operational models to adapt to this systemic change, emphasizing the need for a shift from incremental to stock market strategies [2][8]. Company Strategies - Real estate firms are concentrating on three main transformation paths: enhancing stable income through property holdings, developing light asset businesses, and expanding into new business areas beyond traditional real estate development [2]. - Longfor's operational business revenue reached a historical high of 13.27 billion yuan, while China Resources achieved a core net profit of 6.02 billion yuan, contributing over 60% of its profits [5][6]. Operational Models - Longfor's operational business includes commercial investment, asset management, property management, and smart construction, with a focus on maintaining high occupancy rates and rental income growth [5]. - China Resources is adopting a large asset management model as a core strategy during the industry's transition, achieving regular income of 20.56 billion yuan [6]. Market Adaptation - The industry is encouraged to shift from investment-driven growth to service-driven revenue, focusing on operational and service enhancements [8]. - Companies like Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are actively pursuing new growth lines in commercial and property management [8]. Financial Stability - Moody's report highlights that increasing regular income enhances developers' profitability stability and financial resilience, with Longfor and China Resources showing higher operational income and profitability compared to peers [9].

Core Viewpoint - Midea Real Estate (03990.HK) demonstrates strong performance amidst industry adjustments, with significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, showcasing its robust business model and financial health [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41%, outpacing industry growth [2][3]. - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 310 million yuan, marking a 119% increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin remained high at 30.8% [1][2]. Business Segments - Midea Real Estate operates four core business segments: development services, property management services, asset operation, and real estate technology, which collectively support overall performance [1][2][3]. - In the development services sector, the company focused on key cities, achieving a revenue of 500 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The property management segment, led by Midea Services, generated 930 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 47% of total revenue, with a managed area of 79.46 million square meters [2][3]. - The asset operation segment, particularly Midea Commercial, achieved a revenue of 230 million yuan, with a self-owned project occupancy rate of 91% [3]. Financial Structure - The company maintains a strong financial structure with total assets of 9.49 billion yuan and net assets of 4.98 billion yuan [3]. - Operating cash flow stood at 440 million yuan, with no interest-bearing debt and a cash reserve of 1.27 billion yuan, indicating a high level of liquidity [3]. Dividend Policy - Midea Real Estate announced its first interim dividend of 0.15 HKD per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns and confidence in future growth [4]. - Since its listing in 2018, the company has maintained a competitive dividend policy, with cumulative dividends of approximately 7.61 HKD per share [4]. Strategic Focus - Following a restructuring in 2024, Midea Real Estate is concentrating on its core business segments, with a particular emphasis on third-party construction services, aiming for this segment to exceed 20% of overall development services in the next 2-3 years [5][6]. - The management expressed a commitment to adapting to the industry's transition from "incremental expansion" to "quality improvement" and exploring new real estate models [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land reported a 19.9% year-on-year increase in total revenue to 94.92 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 16.2% to 11.88 billion yuan. However, core net profit decreased by 6.6% to 10 billion yuan, marking a shift to a revenue growth without profit increase scenario since last year [1] Sales Business - The development and sales segment generated revenue of 74.36 billion yuan, up 25.8% year-on-year, but core net profit from this segment fell by 23.8% to 3.98 billion yuan, indicating a decline in sales profitability despite increased revenue [2][3] - The company acquired land worth 44.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a focus on high-value areas, as evidenced by a significant purchase in Beijing for 9.152 billion yuan [2][3] Market Position - China Resources Land ranked fourth in total sales with 110.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a slight improvement in market position. The company has a strong presence in 15 cities and 45 projects ranked in the top ten locally [4] Transformation Strategy - The company is focusing on recurring income streams, with operational real estate revenue reaching 12.11 billion yuan, up 5.5%, and light asset management revenue at 6 billion yuan, up 1.1%. This shift is aimed at improving profit margins [6] - Shopping centers generated rental income of 10.4 billion yuan, a 9.9% increase, with an overall occupancy rate of 97.3% [7] REIT Expansion - China Resources Land's commercial REIT has announced two expansions in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 10 billion yuan. The company plans to maintain a regular expansion of 5 to 10 billion yuan annually [8]

Group 1 - Increasing subway ticket prices in various cities reflect not only the significant losses faced by subway companies but also the growing pains of urbanization and real estate transformation in China [1] - The issue of subway fare hikes appears to be an operational problem, yet it is deeply intertwined with macroeconomic trends related to urbanization and the real estate sector [1]

Group 1 - The global economic transformation, demographic changes, and climate crises are increasingly impacting urban, housing, and real estate issues, which are critical for sustainable economic and social development [1] - Climate risks have become a key factor affecting global socio-economic development, with extreme weather events causing significant losses, necessitating proactive measures [1] - From 1990 to 2019, 91.6% of major natural disasters, 67.6% of disaster-related deaths, 83.7% of economic losses, and 92.4% of insurance losses were attributed to meteorological and derived disasters [1] Group 2 - Research indicates that in China, low-lying and low-floor residences experience significant rent reductions during periods of heavy rainfall, while old neighborhoods and areas with weak infrastructure are particularly sensitive to flood risks [2] - In Italy, the negative impact of flood risks on property prices can be mitigated through public disaster investment, highlighting the positive role of policy intervention in the risk capitalization process [2] - The housing market must enhance its ability to identify and respond to climate risks, reinforcing urban resilience and institutional safeguards for sustainable and safe urban development [2] Group 3 - The recent Central Urban Work Conference identified "resilience" as a key goal for modern urban construction, emphasizing the need for safe and reliable resilient cities as a priority task [2] - Specific measures include advancing urban infrastructure safety projects, upgrading old pipelines, restricting super-tall buildings, and enhancing housing safety standards, all closely related to the real estate industry [2] - The Chinese real estate sector is undergoing deep market adjustments, industrial transformation, and institutional optimization, necessitating a scientific understanding of the interactions between real estate and various socio-economic factors for sustainable development [2][3] Group 4 - Key issues in the real estate industry include establishing a rational land transfer mechanism, stabilizing real estate price fluctuations, addressing expiring land lease issues, and exploring reasonable investment structures for commercial buildings [3] - The profound changes in the global landscape are expected to significantly influence the long-term trajectory of the real estate market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tibet City Investment (西藏城投) has announced an increase in the sales agency fee from 0.5% to 1.5% for a real estate project managed by its major shareholder's subsidiary, aiming to boost sales amid a challenging real estate market [1][4][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Tibet City Investment reported a net loss of 309 million yuan, with real estate sales dropping to 900 million yuan [1][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 535 million yuan but incurred a net loss of 34.39 million yuan [1][8]. - The company's net profit has significantly declined from 117 million yuan in 2022 to 13 million yuan in 2024, marking a 596.55% decrease in net profit [5][8]. Real Estate Market Context - The increase in agency fees is a response to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market, characterized by rising sales pressure and competition [4][11]. - The project "Hongnan Mountain 240 Block" is positioned as a high-end residential community, with a total investment of approximately 11.5 billion yuan and an average price of 125,000 yuan per square meter [4][5]. Lithium Industry Transition - Tibet City Investment holds significant lithium resources, with verified reserves of 3.9 million tons of lithium carbonate [12][16]. - Recent developments include obtaining mining permits and initiating construction of a lithium hydroxide production line, with plans to achieve a production capacity of 130,000 tons over the next 4-5 years [16][12]. - Despite these advancements, the company faces challenges in converting lithium resources into substantial revenue due to the cyclical downturn in the lithium industry [16][12].

Core Viewpoint - Wang Jianlin's decision to sell 48 Wanda Plaza projects is driven by significant debt pressure, with a rumored transaction value of approximately 50 billion yuan [2]. Group 1: Financial Situation - As of Q1 2025, Wanda's interest-bearing debt reached 280 billion yuan, with over 40 billion yuan due within the year, while cash on hand is only 11.6 billion yuan, indicating a substantial cash flow gap [2]. - The company previously faced a payment of approximately 38 billion yuan due to a triggered buyback clause from a betting agreement, further exacerbating its financial strain [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Wang Jianlin's career began in 1986, and he transformed the real estate landscape in China by capitalizing on urban redevelopment and market opportunities, leading to the establishment of numerous Wanda Plazas [5]. - At its peak, Wanda operated 513 plazas nationwide, with the slogan "where there is a Wanda Plaza, there is the city center" becoming widely recognized [5]. Group 3: Business Transformation - Wanda's transition towards a lighter asset model has faced challenges, including failed attempts to list Wanda Commercial on the A-share market and subsequent efforts to list in Hong Kong [7]. - Despite significant asset shrinkage, Wang Jianlin has maintained a commitment to his responsibilities, including ensuring timely salary payments for 150,000 employees and prioritizing small creditors [7].