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Market Overview - The stock market experienced a strong week, particularly for small caps, with the Russell 2000 reaching a new record high following a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 0.25% [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment of a "Goldilocks" economy, suggesting a favorable balance between growth and inflation [1] Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy emphasizes a focus on growth with a cyclical bias, as the market navigates the implications of the Federal Reserve's easing path and prepares for Q3 earnings [3][4] - There is an expectation of earnings recovery into 2026, particularly for small and mid-cap companies, as the market moves away from the earnings recession experienced in the past two years [4] Earnings Insights - Earnings growth is broadening beyond AI-related companies, with expectations for continued improvement in Q3 [5] - The S&P 500's market capitalization is currently split, with approximately half attributed to AI-related sectors and the other half to a mix of economically sensitive and defensive sectors [6] Earnings Expectations - High expectations have been set for Q3 earnings, creating a challenging environment for companies to meet or exceed these targets [7][8] - The S&P 500 is projected to have a year-end target of 6,600, with a potential "Super Bowl case" target of 7,200, contingent on higher earnings estimates for 2026 [8][9][10] Market Sentiment - The fundamental backdrop for the S&P 500 is considered strong, but market sentiment can lead to fluctuations in index values [11] - The unfolding of the investment playbook will be crucial in determining the market's trajectory in the coming months [12]