Group 1 - Barclays Bank expects the total amount of short-term Treasury purchases by the Federal Reserve in 2026 to approach $525 billion, significantly higher than the previous forecast of $345 billion, indicating a very low tolerance for financing pressures [1] - JPMorgan has also raised its expectations, predicting the Fed will maintain a monthly purchase scale of $40 billion until mid-April, then reduce it to $20 billion, leading to a total purchase of $490 billion in the secondary market for 2026 [1] - TD Securities strategists anticipate that the Fed will purchase $425 billion in notes through the standing repo facility (RMP) and MBS reinvestments in FY 2026, absorbing most of the net supply [1] Group 2 - Some institutions express caution regarding the stability of the short-term market, with Bank of America strategists warning that the Fed may need to maintain high purchase levels for a longer duration, estimating that the current RMP size can only replenish about $80 billion of excess cash by mid-April [2] - Wells Fargo's team notes that while the $40 billion monthly purchase scale is at the expected upper limit, it may not be a "cure-all" for year-end liquidity issues, as financing markets are expected to face some pressure around year-end [2]