花旗速递 --- Citi Velocity CitiPoint Asia: Concern Over The US Fiscal Debt - Looking For Evidence Of Regime Change 花旗亚洲观点：对美国财政债务的担忧寻找政权更迭的迹象 Markets 市 场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默德·阿 帕拜 Jun 19, 2025 6:52AM CST 2025 年 6 ⽉ 19 ⽇ 上午 6:52 CST Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH ‒ INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. ⾮花旗研究产品仅供机构客⼾使⽤。 MACRO: CONCERN OVER THE US FISCAL DEBT - LOOKING FOR EVIDENCE OF REGIME CHANGE 宏观：对美国财政债务的担忧寻找体制变⾰的迹象 In our recent two-week marketing trip across Europe one que ...

Group 1 - The recent weakening of the US dollar has led to a collective rebound of Asian currencies, with the South Korean won showing a notable increase of nearly 5% against the dollar in May [1] - Analysts attribute the strengthening of the won to discussions between the US and South Korea regarding exchange rates and the Bank of Korea's "compromise" on the won's appreciation [1] - The demand for hedging against the dollar's decline has surged, with the nominal trading amount of bearish options on the dollar-won pair exceeding $60 million last week, indicating a strong market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - According to models from Goldman Sachs and Nomura, both the won and the South Korean stock market are undervalued, with the won estimated to be undervalued by about 12% [2] - The current level of foreign investment in the South Korean stock market is at a multi-year low, suggesting that attractive valuation levels may draw foreign capital back into the market, benefiting the won [2] - Barclays reports that the recent strength of the won is primarily driven by hedge funds utilizing digital options and bearish spreads to position for won appreciation [2] Group 3 - The National Pension Service (NPS) of South Korea is accelerating its currency hedging, with overseas investment assets totaling $497 billion as of February 2025 [3] - If the NPS strategically increases the hedging ratio of its dollar assets, it could result in an average monthly forward sell of $4 billion, exerting significant upward pressure on the won [3] - The South Korean asset management industry, projected to reach $13 trillion by the end of 2024, holds approximately $153 billion in overseas assets, which may lead to increased hedging activities if the expectation of won appreciation continues [3]

"宏观投资的关键点之一：政策不一定要成功，只要它足够激进，市场就会剧烈反应，而那正是投资机 会所在。" "你必须相信，任何事情都有可能发生。你永远不知道变化什么时候会来，但你得随时准备好去应对。" "很多人喜欢填字游戏、打桥牌，但对我来说，投资就是最好的智力游戏。" "投资的本质：只做最有把握的交易。" "我是一个谨慎的乐观主义者 。" "乔治 · 索罗斯的世界观与众不同，他天生就是一个市场捕猎者。但我认为，他做过最伟大的投资，就 是发现了斯坦 · 德鲁肯米勒。" "人生中真正重要的，是那些一直在你身边的人：是他们在你低谷时拉你一把，在你得意时提醒你别 飘。" 这是去年 10 月现任美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（ Scott Bessent ）在美国大选结果出来之前的一场 对话。时隔半年多回头看，还是很有意思。 过去三个多月，围绕特朗普政府新一轮关税政策的争议持续发酵，市场波动剧烈，贸易预期反复，身为 财长的贝森特一度存在感有限。但就像摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙对他的评价，"是个有分寸的人"。 在刚刚举行的中美经贸会谈中，作为美方代表的贝森特，显示了在核心决策圈的份量。 斯科特 · 贝森特在任职财长之前，是 ...