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达梦数据(688692):收入增长超31%,信创加速推进可期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-16 13:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][18] Core Views - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of 1.044 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 362 million yuan, up 22.22% [1][3][7] - The company is benefiting from the acceleration of information technology construction in sectors such as energy and transportation, leading to a significant increase in software licensing and operational service revenues [1][2] - The company is actively advancing its new database technology development in response to external pressures, particularly in the context of the ongoing US-China trade tensions [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth: In 2024, the company expects revenue of 1.044 billion yuan (+31.49%) and net profit of 362 million yuan (+22.22%). For Q4 alone, revenue is projected at 415 million yuan (+19.34%) and net profit at 188 million yuan (+5.43%) [1][7] - Software licensing and operational services: Software licensing revenue is anticipated to be 894 million yuan (+22.79%), while operational service revenue is expected to grow by 38.50% to 38 million yuan [1][2] - Cash flow performance: The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 473 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.71% [2][17] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin: The overall gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 89.63%, a decrease of 61.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the rapid growth in data and industry solutions [2][12] - Expense ratios: The company has seen a decrease in expense ratios, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 32.03%, 9.16%, and 19.79%, respectively [2][12] Future Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts: The company expects revenues of 1.268 billion yuan, 1.601 billion yuan, and 2.078 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 465 million yuan, 589 million yuan, and 733 million yuan for the same years [3][4][18] - Valuation metrics: The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 57, 45, and 36, respectively [3][4][18]