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“十五五”通信行业转型机遇及发展路径研究:智联未来,价值跃迁
Ai Rui Zi Xun· 2025-08-09 07:48
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the telecommunications industry during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. Core Insights - The telecommunications industry in China is undergoing a profound transformation during the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), shifting from a traditional growth model centered on "connectivity" to becoming "intelligent service and value creators" [4][5]. - The report identifies three core survival crises: "bleeding pipelines" (value erosion from the volume-revenue gap), "heavy assets" (investment return challenges), and "capability gaps" (inability to meet future market demands) [5][14]. - The report emphasizes the necessity of transformation, leveraging four core strategic assets accumulated by operators: ubiquitous network assets, national-level computing power assets, high-value data assets, and deep customer and channel assets [5][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Unavoidable Turning Point - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the digital economy, with significant achievements such as the establishment of the world's largest 5G network, comprising 4.486 million base stations and 223 million gigabit broadband users by May 2025 [13]. - The cumulative investment in 5G network construction exceeded 1.2 trillion RMB, leading to substantial asset return pressures [13][19]. Section 2: Strategic Landscape - The report identifies ten strategic opportunities for the telecommunications industry, categorized into foundational enablers, core strategic battlefields, and visionary bets [30][34]. - Core strategic opportunities include AI-native intelligent computing networks, data element value realization, and integrated vehicle-road-cloud systems, which are deemed critical for operators to focus their resources on [30][39]. Section 3: Core and Forward-looking Opportunities - The report provides a detailed analysis of seven core strategic and forward-looking opportunities, assessing their necessity, feasibility, adaptability, and urgency [56]. - The AI-native intelligent computing network is highlighted as a critical battleground for survival, with a projected market size exceeding 750 billion RMB by 2030, growing at a CAGR of over 30% [60][62]. - Data element value realization is identified as essential for unlocking dormant assets, with the data element market expected to reach 7.5 trillion RMB by 2030 [68][71]. Section 4: Strategic Paths - Six core development paths are proposed for operators, including autonomous innovation in cutting-edge technologies, deepening application scenarios, and upgrading business models [8]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in AI-native intelligent computing networks and data element value realization, allocating 50% of strategic incremental resources to core capability areas [8][7].