2022-2024 年公司整车运输业务持续承压，行业治超推进下四季度业绩有望持续较大改善：2016-2018 年交通运输部曾进行车辆超限超载治理工作，实施"一超四罚"惩罚措施。2018 年公司整车运输量为 320.5 万台，整车运输市场市占率为11.4%，整车运输平均运价为1557.7 元/台，运量相比2015 年提升 22%，运价提升27%。 2022-2024 年公司整车物流业务持续承压，2024 年公司整车运输量为275.7 万台，市场市占率为8.8%， 公司单车运价为847.8 元/台，仅为2018 年的53.4%，随着治超政策的逐步落地，我们预计Q4 起整车运 输业务将迎来较大改善。 多元业务扩张驱动收入增长，毛利率回落有望随公路治超推进而实现改善：2025H1实现收入23.26 亿 元，同比增长27.5%，主要受益于国际业务及新能源板块业务量的显著提升。毛利率由2024H1 的12.2% 下滑至2025H1 的8.3%，主因主机厂整车运输价格调整等因素影响，我们认为随着公路治超逐步推进， 公司毛利率有望逐步回升。费用率方面，2025 年上半年期间费用率为8.37%，同比-2.13pct，其中销售/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][17] Core Views - The implementation of vehicle transport regulation is expected to lead to increased freight rates and improved profitability for the company, similar to the effects observed during previous regulatory periods [2][4] - The company's self-owned transport vehicles exhibit significant profit elasticity, which could benefit from a rebound in freight rates and increased mileage due to regulatory compliance [3][4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to declining vehicle freight rates, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery driven by regulatory actions [4][5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The Ministry of Transport, Public Security, and Industry and Information Technology has initiated a special governance action for vehicle transport, effective from July 2025, aimed at strict management of new vehicle market access and enhanced enforcement against overloaded vehicles [1] - Historical data shows that similar regulatory actions in 2016-2018 led to a significant increase in freight rates and profitability for the company, with average freight rates rising by 23% and net profit reaching 400 million yuan by 2018 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3,783.01 million yuan in 2023 to 4,888.02 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.99% [5][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of 73.63 million yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates, but anticipated to rebound to 416.81 million yuan by 2027 [5][12] Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 65.24 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.29, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to future earnings growth [5][12]