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骑行退潮了
投资界· 2025-06-03 07:38
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bicycle industry is experiencing a significant shift from a "difficult-to-obtain" market in 2020 to a "de-stocking" phase in 2025, characterized by aggressive price cuts and rising inventory levels among dealers [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bicycle market has seen drastic price reductions, with some models experiencing price cuts of 20% to 50% since June 2024, leading to a situation where dealers face the dilemma of either selling at a loss or holding onto unsold inventory [3][4][6]. - Major brands like Merida and Giant have implemented substantial price reductions, with some models dropping by over 20,000 yuan, reflecting a broader trend of de-stocking across the industry [3][4][10]. - The inventory levels for companies like Zhonglu and Shanghai Phoenix have increased significantly, with Zhonglu's inventory rising by approximately 170% year-on-year and Shanghai Phoenix's by about 84% [4]. Group 2: Dealer Challenges - Dealers are struggling with high inventory levels and declining sales, with some reporting a two-thirds drop in sales since August 2024, leading to painful clearance sales at a loss [6][12]. - Many dealers, having stocked up during the previous growth phase, are now facing financial strain as they attempt to sell high-cost inventory at reduced prices, often incurring losses of around 1,000 yuan per bike sold [6][8]. - The lack of adequate manufacturer support for price reductions has left many dealers feeling abandoned, with only a few receiving minimal subsidies for their losses [8][10]. Group 3: Market Trends - The "cycling boom" that fueled demand from 2020 to mid-2023 has begun to wane, leading to a more rational market environment as consumer enthusiasm declines [10][11]. - The Chinese Bicycle Association reported that while mid-to-high-end bicycle sales surged over 20% during the peak of the cycling trend, demand has since cooled, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [10][11]. - The rapid increase in the number of bicycle stores, particularly in urban areas, has contributed to market saturation, with some cities seeing a doubling of store numbers in just two years [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many industry insiders predict a "store closure wave" in the latter half of 2024 as dealers reassess their operations in light of ongoing financial pressures and stagnant sales [16]. - Dealers are preparing for potential closures by evaluating their inventory and sales performance, with some indicating that if seasonal sales do not cover operational costs, they will initiate closure procedures [16].