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曹操出行(02643):中泰国际新股报告
ZHONGTAI INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES· 2025-06-18 11:10
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Subscribe" rating to the company with a score of 70 out of 100 [4][14]. Core Insights - The overall transportation market in China is expected to grow from CNY 6.9 trillion in 2022 to CNY 8.0 trillion in 2024, with a further increase to CNY 10.6 trillion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 5.4% [3][7]. - The company operates in 136 cities with a total Gross Transaction Value (GTV) of CNY 170 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.8% and a market share of 5.4% [6][8]. - The company has reduced its reliance on driver subsidies, with the adjusted percentage of driver income and subsidies in total ride service revenue decreasing from 84.2% in 2022 to 79.0% in 2024 [6][9]. Company Overview - The company is a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, offering two main service lines: Huixuan and Special Car services, utilizing customized vehicles [6][8]. - In 2024, the company's total revenue is projected to reach CNY 146.6 billion, a 37.4% increase year-on-year, with customized vehicle GTV growing by 73.1% to CNY 42.5 billion [8][9]. - The company has a fleet of over 34,000 customized vehicles in 31 cities, with customized vehicle orders accounting for approximately 25.1% of total GTV [6][8]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 8.1% in 2024, recovering from a gross loss margin of 4.4% in 2022, primarily due to optimized vehicle total cost of ownership (TCO) strategies [9]. - The net loss for 2024 is projected at CNY 12.5 billion, with the net loss margin significantly narrowing from 25.8% in 2022 to 8.5% [9]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be CNY 2.4 billion, an increase of approximately CNY 1 billion compared to 2023 [9]. Valuation Level - The company's IPO price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4 times for 2024, which is comparable to its peers in the ride-hailing sector [10]. - The report suggests that the company's valuation is reasonable given its large market capitalization and leading industry position [10]. Market Environment - The investment atmosphere in the Hong Kong stock market has improved significantly, with a 27.6% first-day drop rate for new IPOs and an average first-day increase of 11.7% [13]. - The company has secured subscriptions from six cornerstone investors, including major firms, amounting to approximately HKD 950 million, representing about 51.3% of the total share issuance [14].