Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict between Thailand and Cambodia along their border is rooted in historical territorial disputes and has been exacerbated by recent political events, leading to a significant deterioration in bilateral relations [2][4]. Historical Context - The core issue of the conflict lies in the long-standing border and territorial disputes, particularly regarding the ownership of the Preah Vihear Temple and its surrounding areas, which have been a contentious point for over a century [2][3]. - The 1904 border treaty and subsequent 1907 map drawn by French officials have led to differing interpretations and disputes over the border, culminating in a 1962 ruling by the International Court of Justice that awarded the temple to Cambodia but left surrounding areas ambiguous [3]. Recent Political Events - The "recording scandal" involving former Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen has intensified tensions, with accusations of weakness and betrayal of national interests leading to Prayuth's suspension from office [4][5]. - The internal political dynamics in Thailand, particularly the rise of military influence and the polarization between pro- and anti-government factions, have further complicated the situation [5]. Economic and Diplomatic Implications - Despite the ongoing military tensions, the likelihood of a full-scale war is low due to the intertwined economic relations, including significant border trade and the presence of Cambodian workers in Thailand [7]. - ASEAN's role as a stabilizing force is crucial, as both countries are bound by the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which encourages peaceful resolution of disputes [7]. - International actors, including China and the United Nations, are expected to play a mediating role to prevent escalation and encourage dialogue [7]. Future Outlook - The immediate future may see continued tensions and small-scale military confrontations, but there is potential for de-escalation through international mediation and a return to diplomatic negotiations [6][8]. - Both governments are urged to restore communication channels and manage nationalist sentiments to create a conducive environment for peace talks [8].