The benchmark diesel price used as the basis for most fuel surcharges inched up this week, the fourth consecutive week of increases, in the midst of an oil market that still is pushing higher. The average weekly retail diesel price published by the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration rose 0.7 cents/gallon effective Monday, published Tuesday, to $3.688/g, up 0.7 cts/g. It is the smallest gain in the ongoing four-week climb that has taken the price up from $3.459/g on January 12 to the ...

Core Insights - The benchmark price of diesel has experienced a significant decline, marking the largest drop in a five-week period in two years, with a decrease of 32.4 cents per gallon [1] - The current average retail diesel price is $3.544 per gallon, down from $3.868 prior to this decline [1] - The latest price is the lowest for the benchmark used for most fuel surcharges since June 11, when it was $3.471 [2] Diesel Price Trends - The price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange has shown some stabilization after a decline that began on November 18, with a recent settlement at $2.1581 per gallon [2][3] - The ULSD price fluctuated, reaching a low of $2.1219 per gallon before the recent rise [3] Geopolitical Factors - Uncertainty regarding U.S.-Venezuela relations may impact Venezuelan oil output, which is currently estimated at about 1 million barrels per day, significantly lower than the 3.5 million barrels per day prior to 1998 [4] - The market is also affected by uncertainties surrounding Russian oil production, contributing to fluctuations in oil prices despite a slight decline in ULSD [4] Market Dynamics - The ongoing discussions about a potential oil glut have been a primary driver of lower oil prices over the past six weeks, although geopolitical factors can temporarily overshadow supply and demand impacts [5]

Core Insights - The benchmark diesel price has seen a significant decline, with the latest average retail price falling 7.3 cents to $3.758 per gallon, marking the largest one-week drop since December [1] - The recent price decrease follows a four-week period of increases, where the price rose by 24.8 cents per gallon, indicating volatility in the diesel market [2] Diesel Price Trends - The average retail diesel price has decreased by 11 cents per gallon over the last two weeks, following a previous increase [2] - The price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange has shown volatility, starting at $2.4053 per gallon on November 3 and peaking at $2.7011 per gallon on November 18 before closing the month at $2.333 per gallon [3] Market Reactions - In recent trading, ULSD prices have stabilized within a range of $2.32 to $2.35 per gallon, with no significant market reaction to OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels [4] - OPEC+ has increased its output from 41.79 million barrels per day in June to 43.09 million barrels per day in October, despite some discrepancies between announced and actual output [5] OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to keep production quotas steady, effective January, while a 137,000 barrels per day increase is scheduled for December [6] - The recent surge in diesel prices relative to crude has been attributed to tight inventory levels, with U.S. inventories of non-jet distillate being closely monitored [7]