Group 1 - The company is currently involved in a legal trial related to the Igloo lawsuit against ACON, with testimonies given in the U.S. [1] - The company observed significant market movements leading up to the Annual General Meeting (AGM) invitation deadline [1] Group 2 - The war in the Middle East has started to impact oil prices, which rose from $62 per barrel on February 15 to $103 per barrel on March 12 [2] - Comments from dealers in the U.S. indicate a noticeable effect on the marine and RV sectors due to rising oil prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price shows a wide - range volatile trend due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts and the influence of supply - related news. The market needs to pay attention to whether the conflict directly affects Iranian oil export facilities [1][3]. - The short - term high - and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain at a high level, and the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side should be noted [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase, with attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side [3]. - The polyester price shows a high - level wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the resonance of cost - side increase and supply reduction, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol may have a slight correction if there is an expectation of import recovery [5]. - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may further diverge. The butadiene rubber price will fluctuate with the geopolitical situation and oil price, and the natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [5][7]. - The methanol inventory will enter a downward channel, but the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - The polyolefin market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space, and the follow - up demand growth may be blocked [7][9]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the oil price center dropped. The WTI April contract closed down $5.21 to $93.5 per barrel, a decline of 5.28%. The Brent May contract closed down $2.93 to $100.21 per barrel, a decline of 2.84%. SC2604 closed at 712.5 yuan per barrel, down 49.3 yuan per barrel, a decline of 6.47%. The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes, with at least 27 oil tankers waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday. Iraq is working on modifying an oil pipeline to directly export oil to Turkey's Ceyhan Port [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2605) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.81% to 4,848 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2605) rose 2.18% to 5,729 yuan per ton. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has strengthened significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz restricts the supply of fuel oil from the Middle East, and the soaring freight rates close the east - west arbitrage window, tightening the supply. The demand from domestic refineries for alternative raw materials and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2604) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.63% to 4,464 yuan per ton. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the short - term supply of raw materials is expected to be tight. Some major refineries are ensuring the supply of refined oil, so the asphalt production is expected to decrease, and the supply will remain at a low level. The demand in the northern region is expected to increase in April as the temperature warms up [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,982 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.69%. EG2605 closed at 4,897 yuan per ton, up 3.55%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 10,180 yuan per ton, up 1.62%. The production of domestic and overseas suppliers has been reduced. The cost increase and supply reduction resonate, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol production in Iran has resumed, but the shipping needs further recovery [5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) rose 105 yuan per ton to 16,870 yuan per ton, NR rose 175 yuan per ton to 13,495 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber (BR) main contract fell 25 yuan per ton to 15,700 yuan per ton. In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may diverge [5][7]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol will enter a downward channel, and the MTO plant may increase the willingness to resume production. However, the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream plant maintenance plans have increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decline. The downstream factory operating load has increased, and the spring demand is being released. The market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC price in the East, North, and South China markets has increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, but the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 16, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with March 13, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. The US President Trump called on countries to help dredge the Strait of Hormuz [12]. - With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes. At least 27 oil tankers were waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday, and Saudi Arabia aims to export up to 5 million barrels of oil per day through this alternative channel [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 19 charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 22 charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 12 charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [62][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 4 charts showing the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won many awards and has more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market [76]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [77]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [78]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree and a title of intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [79].

Market Reactions to Middle East Conflict - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing significant attention in the markets, with uncertainty about its duration and resolution [1][2] - Market reactions have been relatively calm, with some analysts surprised by the lack of volatility despite the geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Participants are assessing potential outcomes of the conflict, which could influence economic growth and energy supply chains [3] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest a "buy the dip" strategy, indicating confidence in market recovery despite current uncertainties [1] - There is no consensus among analysts to change fundamental portfolio allocations due to the conflict, although traders are closely monitoring risk premiums [3]

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is marked by significant declines, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 1% and Nvidia falling more than 5% [1] - Bitcoin followed the downward trend of US stocks, breaking below $69,000 and $68,000 [1] - Gold experienced a late rally, rising alongside the US dollar, while oil prices showed volatility, ultimately closing slightly lower [1] Group 2 - The market's reaction was triggered by a surprising downturn after positive news, particularly following Nvidia's strong earnings report, which paradoxically contributed to market declines [2] - The correlation between US stocks and oil prices indicates underlying fears, with oil prices spiking during a period of Nasdaq decline, linked to serious discussions between Iran and the US [3] - The Chicago Fed President's comments on potential interest rate cuts provided some market reassurance, leading to rebounds in gold and US stocks [3] - Overall, the market is characterized by heightened uncertainty, with conflicting signals such as falling US Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and disconnection between gold and stock movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have reached 1146 CNY per gram, while international gold prices have surpassed 5190 USD per ounce, indicating a high volatility market with significant price differences between buying and selling [1][3][4]. Domestic Gold Market - Brand jewelry stores are pricing gold jewelry at 1570 CNY per gram, with a recovery price of only 1120 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference exceeding 400 CNY per gram [1][3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold T+D price of 1146.5 CNY per gram, a slight decrease of 0.13% from the previous trading day [1][4]. - Investment gold bars from banks are priced lower, with China Construction Bank at 1183.20 CNY per gram and Bank of China at 1179.57 CNY per gram [3]. International Gold Market - On February 25, international gold prices showed a rebound, with London gold opening at 5146.23 USD per ounce and reaching a high of 5210.08 USD per ounce before closing at 5186.20 USD per ounce, an increase of 39.97 USD [4][6]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are driving up gold prices as a safe-haven asset [6]. Market Dynamics - The gold market is characterized by a pyramid price structure, with brand retail prices at the top, followed by wholesale prices, and recovery prices at the bottom, indicating significant markups due to branding and processing costs [9][16]. - The recent increase in gold prices is supported by ongoing purchases from central banks, which have been accumulating gold for 16 consecutive months, including a recent addition of 40,000 ounces by the People's Bank of China [6][7]. Investor Sentiment - There is a divergence in institutional investor outlooks, with some predicting gold prices could reach 6200 USD per ounce by the third quarter of 2026, while others remain cautious due to uncertainties in trade policies and interest rates [12][19]. - The market is seeing increased participation, with significant capital inflows into gold and silver futures, reflecting strong investment interest amid rising geopolitical tensions [12][15]. Price Volatility - The gold market is experiencing heightened volatility, with daily price fluctuations often exceeding 100 USD, posing challenges for leveraged traders [18][22]. - The current price structure indicates a contango market, where future contract prices are higher than current prices, suggesting optimistic future price expectations [19].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's large-scale tariff measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lacked clear legal authorization, leading to significant political and economic implications for the Trump administration [1]. Group 1: Trump's Reaction - Following the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump expressed anger and frustration, labeling the decision a "disgrace" and criticizing the conservative justices who voted against him, including two he appointed [2][4]. - Trump publicly attacked the plaintiffs of the lawsuit, a family-run educational toy manufacturer, calling them "sleaze bags" and suggesting that the justices were influenced by foreign powers and Democrats [2][4]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Implications - Analysts noted that Trump's reaction shifted the focus from tariffs to his blatant disregard for institutional norms, raising concerns about the impact on U.S. political and economic foundations [4]. - Legal experts expressed alarm over Trump's unprecedented attacks on the Supreme Court, indicating that his approach could undermine the independence of the judiciary and create significant market uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Future Tariff Plans - Despite the legal setback, Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on global goods, indicating that tariffs would continue in a different form [5]. - This new tariff policy is expected to take effect within approximately three days and is based on a different legal authority than the one previously rejected by the court [5].

Core Insights - The most intense activity in Galaxy OTC occurred in July and August 2025, with trading volume exceeding $13 billion, indicating potential large-scale capital inflow [1] - Historically, record OTC trading volumes often precede price increases, while a sharp decline in trading volume may signal the end of the institutional accumulation phase and the onset of market uncertainty, as observed at the end of 2025 and early 2026 [1] - Galaxy OTC's trading volume is primarily concentrated in stablecoins, accounting for 50%-60% of the total volume, suggesting structural capital flows rather than speculative behavior [1] - OTC trading typically leads public market trends by approximately 2-4 weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new mindset among young people, referred to as "稳学家" (steady scholars), who prioritize stability in their financial planning amidst increasing market volatility and low interest rates expected by 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The financial landscape is characterized by significant fluctuations in gold, silver, and stock markets, leading to heightened uncertainty [1] - The anticipated low interest rate era starting in 2025 is contributing to a shift in investment strategies among young individuals [1] Group 2: Young People's Mindset - The term "稳学家" reflects a change in identity and mentality among contemporary youth, emphasizing a rational and pragmatic approach to financial management [1] - This new mindset is not about being passive or conservative; rather, it represents a thoughtful restructuring of social expectations [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Young individuals are moving from a mindset focused on quick wealth accumulation to one that emphasizes rational asset allocation [1] - Practical strategies being adopted include diversifying into new asset classes and seeking alternatives to traditional savings [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the consensus among institutions is to hold stocks during the upcoming holiday, as historical data indicates a strong "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, with over 70% probability of stock market gains post-holiday [3][10]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently experienced short-term adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearly breaking below 4000 points and the Hang Seng Index facing significant corrections after reaching new highs [4][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of making a decision by the end of the week, particularly for Hong Kong stockholders, as the market will be closed for the Spring Festival, and those using the Stock Connect will not be able to trade during this period [5][12]. Group 2 - The article highlights the increased market volatility and rapid changes in sentiment expected in 2026, driven by numerous uncertainties, including the performance of gold and silver, the stance of the new Federal Reserve chair, and movements in Japanese and Korean stock markets [5][12]. - The recent performance of the Nikkei Index, which rose over 5% to set a new historical high, and the KOSPI Index, which increased by 4%, are noted as significant influences on the sentiment of A-shares and H-shares [5][12]. - The article warns that if investors are heavily invested going into the holiday, they may face challenges if surrounding markets adjust during the extended break, which lasts until February 24 for A-shares [5][12].

Core Insights - The global precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, yet VT Markets has demonstrated robust trading infrastructure, maintaining stable execution and uninterrupted trading access during market pressures [1]. Group 1: Trading Performance - In January, VT Markets recorded a trading volume of up to $1.5 trillion in gold, indicating high customer participation and sustained confidence in its trading environment [3]. - On January 29, 2026, VT Markets achieved a historical peak in gold trading volume amidst severe price fluctuations in the global gold market, driven by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [3]. - 20% of gold traders on the platform were new users, highlighting VT Markets' ability to attract new traders during periods of extreme market volatility [3]. Group 2: Market Infrastructure - VT Markets' deep and diversified liquidity pool allowed the platform to maintain stable pricing and high order execution rates even during peak volatility [3]. - The average spreads for gold and silver remained competitive, and the platform's execution stability was ensured despite overall industry liquidity pressures [3]. - Ross Maxwell, the global strategy operations head at VT Markets, emphasized the importance of platform stability under extreme market conditions, asserting that their systems operated as designed to ensure continuous access to gold and silver trading [4]. Group 3: Commitment to Traders - VT Markets' performance during high volatility periods reinforces its commitment to providing reliable market access for traders, transforming market uncertainty into trading opportunities [4]. - The company's ability to maintain operational capacity under pressure distinguishes it from other brokers in the industry [4].