Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education (00667) has announced a significant profit increase forecast for the first half of 2025, expecting a year-on-year growth of 45%-50% in net profit, driven by a 7% increase in new student registrations and a 10% rise in revenue due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced a strong market performance this year, with a cumulative increase of over 2.3 times in market value, although its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has reached 34 times, indicating a potential peak in valuation [1][3]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 513 million yuan, representing an 88% year-on-year increase, marking a five-year high [7]. Market Dynamics - The stock price of China Oriental Education has been influenced by two main drivers: policy support and a short squeeze phenomenon, leading to a bullish market sentiment [3][6]. - Recent favorable policies, such as the "Education Power Construction Plan (2024-2035)" and new vocational education standards, have positively impacted the vocational education sector, particularly benefiting companies like China Oriental Education [3][4]. Competitive Position - As the largest vocational skills education provider in China, the company has maintained a leading position in the market, with a 1.4 times increase in stock price over the past seven months [4][6]. - The company operates five training brands, each catering to different fields, with all brands maintaining a gross margin above 50% [7]. Industry Context - The vocational education sector has seen a general upward trend, with many institutions achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, although China Oriental Education's performance is considered average compared to peers [8]. - The divergence in valuation between vocational training and academic institutions is expected to persist, with the former receiving more capital attention due to favorable market conditions and high unemployment rates driving demand for skill-based training [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - Despite reaching a potential peak in valuation, the company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory in the long term, supported by favorable policies and a solid operational foundation [2][9]. - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in high-performing stocks within the vocational education sector, particularly those that may be undervalued [9].

Core Viewpoint - China Oriental Education has shown significant stock price growth of 90% this year, outperforming the vocational education sector by over 85 percentage points, despite previous declines in market value due to policy impacts [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.116 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with gross profit reaching 2.115 billion RMB, up 10.8%. Shareholder net profit surged by 88% to 513 million RMB, with gross and net profit margins improving to 51.38% and 12.46%, respectively [1][5][7] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.22 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 93.5% and a dividend yield of nearly 4% [1] Brand Performance - China Oriental Education operates five training brands, achieving an average employment rate of 94.9% across these brands in 2024. Revenue contributions from each brand were as follows: New Oriental (46.6%), Oumandi (2.56%), Xinhua Computer (18.54%), Wantong (22.2%), and Oumandi (8.3%) [2][4] - The average tuition fee across all brands was 27,600 RMB, reflecting a 3.6% increase, with training participants totaling approximately 146,300, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [2][4] Cost Management - The company has optimized its cost structure, with selling, administrative, and financing expense ratios decreasing to 23.66%, 12.34%, and 2.87%, respectively. The overall period expense ratio fell to 38.87%, a decrease of 16.75 percentage points year-on-year [5] Industry Context - The vocational education and training market in China exceeded 1 trillion RMB in 2022, with stable growth expected. The sector is experiencing renewed opportunities due to high unemployment rates and a demand for specialized skills [6] - China Oriental Education stands out as a rare investment opportunity in the vocational training sector, benefiting from increased attention and a strong fundamental performance [6][8]