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地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:吉林篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-09-29 12:56
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Jilin Province. Jilin is an important old industrial base and a window to Northeast Asia, with prominent location and resource advantages. In 2024, the economy grew but at a lower rate than the national average, and the government debt burden was heavy. The province is taking measures to resolve implicit debt and has achieved certain results [4]. Group 2: Jilin's Economic and Fiscal Strength Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jilin is located in the central part of Northeast China, with rich natural resources, well - developed land transportation, and many ports. The population has a net outflow, and the urbanization rate is relatively low. In 2024, the economic aggregate and per - capita GDP were at a low level in the country. The industrial structure is in a "three - two - one" pattern, with the tertiary industry leading. Key investment areas are growing steadily, and national strategies such as the revitalization of Northeast China and Tumen River area development support regional development [5][8][12]. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jilin's general public budget revenue ranked relatively low in the country. The revenue quality was acceptable, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was low, and the government - funded income decreased significantly. The provincial government's debt burden was heavy. The overall debt burden was at a low level among all provinces, with a debt ratio of 202.90% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 69.59% in 2024 [20][22]. Debt Resolution - As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, Jilin has taken multiple measures to resolve implicit debt, reducing the stock of implicit debt to less than 10 billion yuan, clearing implicit debt in 58 city - counties, and reducing financing platforms by 56.7%. In 2024, new bonds were issued to support project construction, and in 2025, new debt limits were increased [24][25][26]. Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Jilin's Prefectures and Cities Economic Strength - The economic development of Jilin's prefectures and cities is uneven, with Changchun having an absolute advantage in economic volume. Each region develops industries based on its own resource advantages. Changchun's GDP accounts for over 50% of the province's total. In terms of per - capita GDP, Changchun ranks first, and Siping ranks last. Baishan has a relatively high urbanization level [27][37][38]. Fiscal Strength and Debt - The general public budget revenue of Jilin's prefectures and cities is significantly differentiated. Most regions' revenue increased in 2024, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was generally low. The government - funded income varied greatly among regions, with Changchun's decreasing significantly. All regions received large - scale superior subsidies. In 2024, the government debt balance of each region increased, and the debt burden of Changchun, Jilin, Yanbian, and Songyuan was heavy [41][49]. Group 4: Debt - Repayment Ability of Jilin's Urban Investment Enterprises Overview - There are few urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Jilin, mostly concentrated in Changchun. The credit ratings of the issuers are mainly above AA +, and the administrative levels are mainly at the prefecture - city level [51]. Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances by urban investment enterprises in Jilin increased year - on - year, and the net financing turned positive. From January to August 2025, the issuance scale was 81.22% of that in 2024, and the net financing turned negative. The outstanding bonds are mainly concentrated in Changchun [55]. Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis - The debt structure of Jilin's urban investment enterprises is mainly indirect financing. The short - term debt - repayment pressure is relatively large, especially for Changchun's enterprises with large - scale bond maturities in 2025 - 2026. The short - term debt - coverage ratio of cash - like assets decreased in 2024 and improved slightly in 2025. The financing cash flow mainly comes from Changchun's enterprises [58][61][65]. Support from Fiscal Revenue - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" varies greatly among different regions in Jilin. Changchun exceeds 500.00%, while Siping, Baicheng, and Baishan have better support capabilities [67].