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青鸟消防(002960):25H1业绩短期承压,多元化布局展现经营韧性
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-26 12:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on its performance due to a decline in domestic real estate completions, with revenue of 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.04%, and a net profit of 159 million yuan, down 16.06% [1]. - Despite industry challenges, the company's core domestic commercial and residential alarm and evacuation business shows resilience, with revenue of 1.343 billion yuan, a decline of 7.48%, which is significantly better than the national housing completion decline of 14.8% [1]. - The company is shifting its business structure towards high-growth and high-margin industrial and overseas markets, laying a foundation for long-term stable development [1]. Financial Performance - The company's incremental business continues to grow, with domestic industrial and industry fire protection revenue reaching 352 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.27% [2]. - The overseas business generated revenue of 392 million yuan, up 4.83%, with a gross margin increase to 48.12% [2]. - R&D investment reached 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, focusing on technological innovation and the commercialization of fire-fighting robots [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Due to slower-than-expected recovery in real estate growth and increased competition in the commercial alarm and evacuation sector, the profit forecast has been adjusted downwards [3]. - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.938 billion yuan, 5.459 billion yuan, and 6.131 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 441 million yuan, 579 million yuan, and 684 million yuan [5]. - The report highlights the company's leading position in the industry and its strategic positioning in emerging fields, supporting a positive long-term development outlook [3].