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摩根大通:比亚迪-H&A_ 2025年1季度业绩强劲;预计未来增长继续. Sun Apr 27 2025
摩根· 2025-05-06 02:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for BYD, with a target price of 600.00 HKD for BYD-H and 560.00 CNY for BYD-A [3][7][13]. Core Insights - BYD's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a projected average profit per vehicle of 10,500 CNY, higher than the management's guidance of 10,000 CNY and market consensus of 9,800 CNY [1][4]. - The report highlights a 36% year-on-year revenue growth driven by a 60% increase in sales volume in Q1 2025, with a resilient gross margin rising from 19.4% in 2024 to 20.1% in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - BYD's global delivery volume is expected to reach 6.5 million units by 2026, with overseas deliveries accounting for approximately 1.5 million units [7][13]. - The company aims to increase its market share in the global light vehicle market from 3% in 2023 to 7% by 2026, while maintaining a 22% share in the new energy vehicle market [7][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue increased by 36% year-on-year, with net profit doubling compared to the previous year, reaching 9,155 million CNY [5][6]. - The average profit per vehicle, including BYD Electronics, was 9,148 CNY in Q1 2025 [5][6]. Market Strategy - BYD's strategy includes a focus on high-end models, with an expected 20% of domestic sales coming from vehicles priced above 200,000 CNY, up from 14% last year [4]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity with new factories in Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, Hungary, and Turkey, which will collectively add over 500,000 units of capacity [4][7]. Future Projections - BYD's sales volume is projected to grow from 4.2 million units in 2024 to approximately 5.5 million units in 2025, representing a growth rate of about 30% [4][7]. - Long-term projections suggest that BYD could achieve global shipments of around 10 million vehicles by 2030, positioning itself as a leader in the global electric vehicle market [4][9].