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新券定价:沈阳软件园REIT:东北首只公募REIT且民营背景
Shanxi Securities· 2025-10-10 07:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shenyang Software Park REIT is the first public REIT in Northeast China with a private background. After its listing, especially during the dividend guarantee period, its valuation multiples may be comparable to the industry average. The reasonable price range is estimated to be 3.80 - 4.51 yuan, 4 - 23% higher than the issue price [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 REIT Basic Information - The underlying assets of the China CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT (508029.SH) are the Shenyang International Software Park, including three parks: Angli Information Park, Shenyang International Software Park Phase I, and Shenyang Digital Economy Industrial Park (Shenyang International Software Park Phase II). The original equity holder is Mr. Zhao Jiuhong. In 2024, the revenue was 103 million yuan, and EBITDA was 75.55 million yuan. Affected by the expiration and withdrawal of the original largest tenant, the weighted - average occupancy rate in 2024 decreased by 2.13% to 83.86% compared to 2023, and the occupancy rate in Q1 2025 was 83.93%. The collection rate in 2024 was 86.03%, dropping to 77.04% in Q1 2025 [3] 3.2 Issuance Situation and Valuation - The planned issuance is 300 million shares with a designed duration of 37 years. The proportions of strategic placement, offline subscription, and public subscription are 70%, 21%, and 9% respectively. The offline inquiry was on September 29, 2025, and the payment was on October 13, 2025, with an expected listing in early November. The effective offline subscription multiple was 99.42 times, and the estimated winning rate was 1.01%. The issue price was 3.66 yuan, at the 67.54% quantile of the inquiry range. The asset value evaluated by DTZ was 1.026 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 7.00% and a long - term growth rate assumption of 1.5%. The issue price corresponds to a P/NAV of 1.07x. The predicted distributable amounts for this year and next year are 57 million yuan (annualized) and 58 million yuan respectively, with predicted annualized dividend yields of 5.53% and 5.61%. The issue price corresponds to annualized dividend yields of 5.17% and 5.24%, and a 2026E P/FFO of 19.80x [4] 3.3 Secondary Market Valuation Deduction - There are currently 19 listed property - type park infrastructure REITs. In the past three months, the median P/NAV was 1.11 times, the median P/FFO was 23.51 times, and the median TTM dividend yield was 4.25%. Although the underlying assets are average and the original equity holder lacks high - quality expandable assets, the original equity holder has provided a guarantee for the distributable amount. From 2025 - 2029, the actual distributable amount will probably not be lower than the predicted value [5]