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财通证券:原料药板块有望周期性回升 创新链驱动第二增长曲线
智通财经网· 2026-02-03 01:24
Core Viewpoint - The chemical raw material pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, but leading companies are expected to transition from cyclical stocks to innovative industry chains, driven by rising upstream costs, policy-driven market clearing, and the maturation of new drug trends such as GLP-1 oral small molecules and small nucleic acids [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The chemical raw material pharmaceutical PPI index has been under long-term pressure, with various product prices, including sartans, heparins, and animal health products, dropping to historical lows, leading some leading companies to report losses [2]. - The price reduction effects from centralized procurement are gradually impacting upstream raw materials, resulting in declining profit margins for raw material pharmaceuticals [2]. Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Rising raw material prices and exchange rates, along with anti-involution policies, are expected to accelerate market clearing in the raw material pharmaceutical industry, allowing companies to potentially initiate a second growth curve [3]. - The upcoming industrial transformation in 2026 for GLP-1 oral small molecules and small nucleic acid drugs is anticipated to generate significant global demand for APIs and intermediates, establishing a trend that favors companies positioned within the MNC supply chain [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies that are positioned within the MNC supply chain, such as Chengda Pharmaceutical, Lianhua Technology, WuXi AppTec, and others, are recommended for investment as they are likely to benefit from the transition to an innovative industry chain [4].