Core Viewpoint - By 2025, China's innovative pharmaceuticals are expected to demonstrate significant global competitiveness, with record overseas transactions and many companies turning profitable [1][2]. Domestic Review - The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is highlighted, with a record-breaking overseas transaction total exceeding $135 billion in 2025, and upfront payments reaching $7 billion. The average deal size has increased from $600 million to $900 million [2]. - A comprehensive support system from policy, including review and approval processes to medical insurance payments, is being established, leading to a rapid increase in market share for innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and immunology, which now exceeds 32% [2]. - Companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics have already turned profitable, with others like CanSino Biologics and Zai Lab expected to follow suit in the next three years, indicating a positive cycle of capital influx, R&D iteration, and value realization [2]. Overseas Review - The S&P Biotechnology Index has risen over 50% from its bottom in the second half of 2025, driven by interest rate cuts that have shifted funds from tech stocks to biotech [3]. - Major pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to supplement their pipelines, particularly in oncology and immunology, as they face a "patent cliff" with key drugs like Keytruda and Opdivo losing patent protection by 2027-2028 [3]. Assessment - Chinese companies are becoming significant partners for the top 20 MNCs, with Chinese transaction amounts accounting for 40% of the global innovative drug market. China is transitioning from a "fast-follower" to a "smart-innovator" in fields like PD-1 bispecific antibodies, ADCs, and small nucleic acids, leading in pipeline numbers and clinical progress [4]. - The speed and cost advantages of Chinese innovative drug companies are notable, with patient recruitment occurring at 2-5 times the speed of international counterparts and costs being half that of Western companies [4]. Key Tracks and Investment Opportunities - Bispecific antibodies are expected to surpass $120 billion in global sales, with Chinese companies leading the development of second-generation IO products [5]. - ADCs are seeing significant contributions from China, with over half of the global pipeline, and are expected to achieve proof of concept (POC) validation by 2026 [5]. - Combination therapies in oncology are showing synergistic effects, with key clinical data expected in 2026 [5]. - The market for iRAS inhibitors is projected to exceed $8 billion in the U.S., with critical breakthroughs anticipated in 2026 [5]. - Small nucleic acids are expanding into broader applications, with key products expected to commercialize and deliver critical data in 2026 [5]. - Protein degradation technologies are advancing rapidly, with numerous autoimmune disease targets expected to yield data in 2026 [5]. - The metabolic and cardiovascular fields are also poised for breakthroughs, with new targets addressing issues like muscle loss associated with GLP-1 therapies [5]. Main Lines and Recommended Focus - Recommended companies in the bispecific antibody space include CanSino Biologics, Innovent Biologics, and others [7]. - ADC-focused companies include I-Mab, Kelun-Biotech, and others [7]. - Small nucleic acid companies to watch include Ribobio, BIBO, and others [7]. - Strategic combinations to consider include CanSino Biologics, BeiGene, and others [8]. - Flexible combinations include BIBO, Eifang Biologics, and others [8]. - Stable combinations include Hengrui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [6] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a week-on-week decline of 0.68%, underperforming both the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300 Index, ranking 17th among all industries [2][36] - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for innovation, international expansion, and turnaround opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on BD 2.0, small nucleic acids, and supply chain [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. National Essential Drug List Adjustment Analysis - The adjustment of the National Essential Drug List is urgent as the current version has not been updated since 2018, leading to a disconnect with current clinical needs [14] - The new adjustments will focus on three main areas: addressing gaps in disease coverage, solidifying the integration of centralized procurement and national negotiation results, and enhancing the evidence-based standards for traditional Chinese medicine [5][14] - Potential beneficiaries from the adjustments include companies like Panlong Pharmaceutical, Guizhou Sanli, and Yiling Pharmaceutical, particularly in pediatrics, orthopedics, and cardiovascular fields [5][28] 2. JP Morgan Conference Overview - The 44th JP Morgan Health Conference highlighted strategic developments from major global pharmaceutical companies, showcasing their core pipeline progress and key clinical milestones for 2026 [33] - Companies such as Pfizer, Merck, and Eli Lilly presented their focus on advancing clinical trials and launching new products in various therapeutic areas [34][35] 3. Pharmaceutical Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector's performance from January 12 to January 16 showed a decrease of 0.68%, with a total trading volume of 916.83 billion yuan, accounting for 5.35% of the total market [2][36] - The report notes that the sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.08%, outperforming both the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [36]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Committee emphasizes the importance of strengthening the research and development of innovative drugs and medical devices, focusing on new drug targets, accelerated results transformation, improved clinical trial efficiency, and innovative payment methods to promote the high-end and efficient development of the biopharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Jianghai Securities predicts that 2026 will see a surge in BD transactions and mergers in the innovative drug sector, highlighting three main investment themes: focusing on ADC, bispecific antibodies, and RDC tracks, selecting globally competitive innovative drug companies, and paying attention to the commercialization and BD progress of late-stage pipelines [1] - The second investment theme involves closely following cutting-edge fields like small nucleic acids, targeting leading companies with proprietary delivery platforms and chronic disease pipelines [1] - The third theme looks favorably on supporting companies in the innovative drug industry chain, such as CXO firms that will benefit from increased R&D investment and accelerated international expansion, as well as niche companies deeply engaged in industry chain integration that hold long-term value [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Guosen Securities notes that the Chinese innovative drug industry has shown a long-term positive development trend, particularly evident in the explosive growth of BD transactions in recent years [1] - It is important to recognize that for most domestic innovative drugs, external licensing is often just the starting point for global development, with the progress of partners in overseas development and subsequent global clinical data readings further enhancing the certainty of product commercialization in the global market [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **pharmaceutical and medical device industries** in China, particularly the trends and opportunities for 2025 and beyond [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2025, the pharmaceutical industry experienced a significant recovery, with the innovation drug sector outperforming the overall market, showing a growth of approximately **60%** compared to the overall industry index increase of less than **10%** [2][3]. - The success of innovative drugs is primarily driven by breakthroughs in international markets, with **8 out of the top 10 global innovative transactions** in 2025 originating from Chinese companies, boosting market confidence [3][4]. - Despite the positive performance of innovative drugs, certain sectors like vaccines and blood disorders still reported negative returns, indicating a strong structural market [2][3]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector shows varied performance across sub-markets, with low-value consumables like nitrile gloves gaining significant market power, while high-value consumables and high-end medical devices are still in the early stages of international expansion [6][7]. - Notable achievements in the medical device sector include significant growth in exports of cardiovascular stents, artificial joints, and pacemakers, with local companies successfully entering developed markets such as the US and EU [7][8]. - High-value consumables differ from pharmaceuticals in that they possess independent intellectual property and innovation, allowing for licensing opportunities. Establishing sales networks in developed countries is expected to mitigate domestic pricing pressures [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - The financing environment for innovative drugs has improved, reversing a downward trend observed in the past two to three years, which is a positive signal for the pharmaceutical industry [10]. - The retail pharmacy sector is undergoing significant changes, with a decline in the number of single-store pharmacies and a recovery in performance for some chain pharmacies due to the closure of unprofitable locations [11]. - The implementation of traceability code policies in 2026 is expected to standardize market competition and accelerate internal consolidation among chain pharmacies [11]. - Future trends in innovation are expected to focus on unmet clinical needs and new technological directions, such as small nucleic acid technology, which has shown promise in traditional treatments [16]. Recommendations for Investment - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to remain promising in 2026, with a focus on innovative directions due to reduced uncertainty compared to previous years [15]. - In the medical device sector, attention should be given to high-value consumables, IVD products, and high-end medical equipment, which are anticipated to have significant growth potential [17]. - Continuous monitoring of CDMO order growth and potential breakthroughs in chain pharmacies and raw materials is recommended, particularly in synthetic biology and contract manufacturing [18].

Core Insights - The medical ETF (159828) has risen over 1%, indicating that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is entering a critical phase of innovation realization and global expansion [1] - The industry is expected to experience a convergence of industrial, policy, and capital cycles by 2026, transitioning from "innovation narrative" to "value realization," which may lead to performance inflection points and valuation restructuring [1] Industry Trends - The next generation of innovative therapies, including ADCs, bispecific/multispecific antibodies, cell and gene therapies, and small nucleic acids, are highlighted as key areas of focus [1] - The impact of centralized procurement on medical devices is diminishing, with over half of the policy coverage achieved; the coverage rates for high-value consumables, low-value consumables, in vitro diagnostics, and medical equipment are 58%, 35%, 23%, and 3% respectively [1] - Domestic medical device companies are making breakthroughs in high-end fields such as photon-counting CT and aortic regurgitation valves, with rapid growth in exports expected (medical device exports are projected to grow by 7.3% year-on-year from January to November 2025) [1] Investment Recommendations - Companies that can quickly achieve volume growth through price adjustments post-centralized procurement, as well as those benefiting from equipment upgrades driving procurement growth, are recommended for attention [1] - The medical ETF tracks the CSI Medical Index (399989), which selects listed companies in medical devices, medical services, and medical information technology, reflecting the overall performance of the medical theme [2] - The index is characterized by high growth attributes and industry concentration, influenced by aging trends, consumption upgrades, and policy guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical and medical device sectors in China are expected to experience a convergence of industrial, policy, and capital cycles by 2026, presenting significant investment opportunities in innovative therapies and medical devices [1] Pharmaceutical Industry - The Chinese innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a performance inflection point and valuation restructuring, with a focus on next-generation therapies such as ADCs, bispecific/multispecific antibodies, cell and gene therapies, and small nucleic acids [1] - Research and development spending by pharmaceutical companies is showing marginal improvement, with opportunities for domestic substitution and breakthroughs in mid-to-high-end products [1] Medical Device Industry - The impact of centralized procurement policies is gradually diminishing, while overseas markets continue to grow rapidly, suggesting a recovery in the performance of related companies [1] - Investment focus should be on rapidly scaling products post-procurement implementation and medical device companies driven by equipment upgrades [1] Blood Products Market - The demand for blood products and the volume of plasma collection are consistently increasing, with resources concentrating among leading companies in the sector [1] Investment Opportunities - The overall pharmaceutical industry is entering a critical phase of innovation realization and global expansion, with investment opportunities concentrated in innovative companies that possess global competitiveness [1] ETF Overview - The Guotai Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (159377) tracks the Innovation Pharmaceutical Index (399275), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, focusing on companies with high R&D investment and innovation capabilities in the pharmaceutical sector [1]

Q5：细胞基因治疗业务今年的情况如何？是否有海外客户？ A5：2025 年，博腾生物整体业务开展符合预期，在多个业务领 域均实现突破，包括获得商业化工艺变更阶段的 CMC 项目、完 成首个 in vivo CAR 慢病毒项目工艺开发及三批 GMP 批次生 产，签署多个慢病毒/mRNA-tLNP 的 in vivo CAR-T 管线项目。 博腾生物已经在美国、欧洲、韩国等海外市场取得突破。 Q6：如何看待 in vivo CAR-T？ A6：In vivo CAR-T 为未来 CGT 商业化现货型产品打开了一种 思路和可能，但是目前仍在早期阶段，在技术成熟度、安全性 等方面仍需要验证。 证券代码：300363 证券简称：博腾股份 博腾股份投资者关系活动记录表 编号：00120260105 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动类 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 □电话通讯 | | | □其他 | | 参与单位名称及人 | 长江证券：万梦蝶、刘长洪；长江证券自营：彭仲杄；兴银基 | | 员姓名 | 金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core investment theme for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry in 2025 is the internationalization of innovative drugs, with significant transactions boosting market confidence and new drug licensing revenues becoming a crucial funding source for sustainable corporate development [1] Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The internationalization of innovative drugs is expected to enhance corporate valuations, with China making continuous advancements in dual antibodies and ADCs, while also achieving breakthroughs in emerging technologies like small nucleic acids and inhalation formulations [1] - The proportion of overseas revenue in corporate value is anticipated to increase, as companies leverage their strengths in these areas [1] - The medical device sector is transitioning from low-value consumables to high-value consumables, overcoming certification and sales barriers, with high-value exports growing rapidly and the European and American markets becoming significant sources of incremental growth [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The impact of domestic centralized procurement is gradually being digested, leading to increased replacement opportunities, and the overall performance of the industry is expected to recover [1] - Domestic demand-driven segments, such as chain pharmacies and CROs, are undergoing a cleansing cycle, with leading companies gradually resuming growth [1] - The push for innovation and internationalization is driving the industry from low-level competition to source innovation, although structural opportunities should be monitored, as only truly innovative companies can share in the global market dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Instruments - The medical ETF (159828) tracks the CSI Medical Index (399989), which selects listed companies in the medical device, medical services, and medical information sectors from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of related securities in China's medical industry [1]

趋势观察 25：CXO 25Q4 趋势观察 20251227 摘要 新签订单金额反映管线增量，预计新增临床前候选化合物（PCC）增长 20%-30%，主要由创新周期驱动的新管线增加所致，预示未来业绩增 长潜力。 临床前毒理实验用猴价格因需求井喷式增长而上涨，目前 CRO 采购价约 12 万元/只，预计将升至 15 万元/只，主要驱动因素为小核酸、ADC 抗 体药等需求增加，独立实验排期已延长至 2026 年 5 月后，反映供需严 重失衡。 开口合同重现，即猴价上涨风险由买方承担，反映行业对未来价格持续 看涨预期，公司可通过延长排期应对供需不平衡，进一步推高价格，增 加企业运营成本。 2025 年第四季度临床 CRO 市场复苏，折扣下限从 4-7 折升至 6-8 折， 表明行业竞争趋缓，订单实现 10%以上增长，药明康德出售临床业务或 因大临床业务竞争力不足，利润率较低。 2025 年第四季度 CDMO 板块表现尚可，跨国企业（MNC）需求强劲， Biotech 公司需求一般，美国市场逐步转好，欧洲市场表现更佳，整体 与第三季度预期差异不大。 Q&A 2025 年第四季度临床前药效研究的趋势如何？ 2025 年 ...

Key Points Summary of 九州药业 Conference Call Company Overview - 九州药业 is transitioning from generic drugs to innovative drug services, established in 1973 and entered the pharmaceutical sector in 1985. The company began its CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business in 2008 and went public in 2014 [3][4]. Industry and Business Structure - The company has achieved synergy in domestic and international production through acquisitions and self-built capabilities, including the establishment of an overseas management headquarters in Singapore and R&D platforms in Japan and Germany [2][3]. - The core revenue source is the CDMO business, which generated revenue of 22.91 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.27% with a gross margin of 41% [2][3]. Project Pipeline and Clientele - The project pipeline has increased from 378 in 2019 to 1,214 as of the first half of 2025, including 38 commercialized products [2][3]. - Major clients include multinational corporations (MNCs) such as Novartis, Roche, and Pfizer, with Novartis accounting for over 60% of the revenue [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the raw material drug business generated revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of 23% despite industry competition and price declines [2][5]. - The company expects a net profit growth of around 15% over the next three years, with a revenue increase of 4.92% and a net profit increase of 18.51% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the current year [4][5]. New Business Initiatives - The establishment of the Prince Division aims to develop new molecular types such as peptides, conjugated drugs, and small nucleic acids, creating a second growth curve [2][5]. - The company is advancing commercial production capacity for these new initiatives, including three peptide conjugation platforms and capabilities for small nucleic acid research in both China and the U.S. [5]. Market Outlook and Valuation - The company is projected to maintain a net profit growth rate of approximately 15% over the next three years, with a target price of 27 yuan based on a 21x P/E ratio for 2026 [4][5]. - The current stock price reflects a P/E ratio of about 12x for 2027, indicating a favorable investment opportunity considering the rebound in raw material prices and healthy development in small molecule CDMO [5].